Pecan Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$232,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily · 541 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With enough space for the whole family, the Pecan floor plan will not disappoint. Upon entering your new home, you are greeted by a foyer area that is equipped with your convenient utility room, storage closet, and an entrance to your two-car garage. Needing more storage for tools, holiday decorations, or another car? Decide to upgrade to a two-and-a-half-car garage or even a three-car garage! Travel down the hallway where you are met with your expansive family room and dining room combination - perfect for entertaining guests for dinner parties, holidays, or any other occasion! Right off the living room lies your secondary and third bedrooms with the full secondary bathroom residing in between the two bedrooms. Past the dining area is your spacious kitchen area complete with access to your pantry, and contains sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and designer light fixtures that is sure to please any eye! Leading from the kitchen is access to your backyard with the option to include an extensive covered patio for you to enjoy backyard barbecues on. When it's time to rest, head over to your private master suite. Your master bathroom boasts cultured marble countertops, a large super shower, and a huge walk-in closet! The Pecan plan is perfect for most any lifestyle, no matter what phase of life you are in. Each CastleRock home is Energy Star Certified and is built with energy-efficient features that help keep you comfortable. ..

Key facts

• Storage closet
• Powder room
• Two car garage

Tags

• FOYER AREA
• POWDER ROOM
• STORAGE CLOSET
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM COMBINATION

🏗️ New construction. The $232,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,445.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 541 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,031 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 541 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,445
• List price: $232,990
• Delta: -8.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12814 Ivy Creek Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-0%)	2mo	$251,690	$161	87
13006 Dianna Lee Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	2mo	$218,990	$154	78
13030 Dianna Lee Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	3mo	$216,790	$153	77
12910 Dianna Lee Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	4mo	$257,990	$182	77
1507 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,737 (+11%)	1mo	$260,790	$150	77
13031 Dianna Lee Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-10%)	3mo	$214,490	$152	76
12814 Shaily Faith Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+2%)	1mo	$223,990	$139	74
1531 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,737 (+11%)	3mo	$254,990	$147	73
12807 Ivy Creek Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+9%)	2mo	$220,991	$129	73
1527 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-13%)	2mo	$228,875	$168	72
12818 Shaily Faith Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-10%)	2mo	$216,990	$154	66
12815 Shaily Faith Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-10%)	2mo	$226,990	$161	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-54,740
• Equity at exit: $37,789

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-73,550
• Equity at exit: $21,913

Cash invested: $70,965 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 53 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.7 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $233,588 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1723
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,329
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,802/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,301

Max offer price $229,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-79	+0% $-166	+5% $-254	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-331	-5% $-249	+0% $-166	+5% $-84	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-102	base $-166	+0.5pp $-232	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,361
• Closing costs: $7,603
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13702 Sun Bear Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,899	$1.00	40d	1	1.39mi
12215 Crosby Lynchburg Rd Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,400	$1.28	62d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $232,990 Active 541 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $232,990 Active 540 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $232,990 Active 539 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $232,990 Active 538 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $232,990 Active 537 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $232,990 Active 536 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $232,990 Active 535 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $232,990 Active 534 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $232,990 Active 533 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $232,990 Active 532 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $232,990 Active 531 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $232,990 Active 530 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $232,990 Active 529 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $232,990 Active 528 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $232,990 Active 522 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $232,990 Active 521 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $232,990 Active 519 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $232,990 Active 517 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $232,990 Active 515 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $232,990 Active 514 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $232,990 Active 513 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $232,990 Active 511 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $232,990 Active 510 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $232,990 Active 509 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $232,990 Active 508 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $232,990 Active 507 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $232,990 Active 506 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $232,990 Active 505 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $232,990 Active 504 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $232,990 Active 503 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $232,990 Active 502 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $232,990 Active 501 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $232,990 Active 500 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $232,990 Active 499 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $232,990 Active 498 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $232,990 Active 497 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $232,990 Active 496 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $232,990 Active 495 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $232,990 Active 494 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $232,990 Active 492 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $232,990 Active 491 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $232,990 Active 490 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $232,990 Active 489 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $232,990 Active 486 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $232,990 Active 485 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $232,990 Active 484 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $232,990 Active 483 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $232,990 Active 481 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $232,990 Active 479 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $232,990 Active 478 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,197
• − Property taxes: −$3,802
• − Insurance: −$2,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − Depreciation: −$7,373
• Taxable loss: −$6,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,850–$23,550 screening

This single-family home in Barrett, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $232,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $226,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $234,990 Zillow