Pecan Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$232,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily · 586 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With enough space for the whole family, the Pecan floor plan will not disappoint. Upon entering your new home, you are greeted by a foyer area that is equipped with your convenient utility room, storage closet, and an entrance to your two-car garage. Needing more storage for tools, holiday decorations, or another car? Decide to upgrade to a two-and-a-half-car garage or even a three-car garage! Travel down the hallway where you are met with your expansive family room and dining room combination - perfect for entertaining guests for dinner parties, holidays, or any other occasion! Right off the living room lies your secondary and third bedrooms with the full secondary bathroom residing in between the two bedrooms. Past the dining area is your spacious kitchen area complete with access to your pantry, and contains sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and designer light fixtures that is sure to please any eye! Leading from the kitchen is access to your backyard with the option to include an extensive covered patio for you to enjoy backyard barbecues on. When it's time to rest, head over to your private master suite. Your master bathroom boasts cultured marble countertops, a large super shower, and a huge walk-in closet! The Pecan plan is perfect for most any lifestyle, no matter what phase of life you are in. Each CastleRock home is Energy Star Certified and is built with energy-efficient features that help keep you comfortable. ..

Key facts

• Storage closet
• Powder room
• Two car garage

Tags

• FOYER AREA
• POWDER ROOM
• STORAGE CLOSET
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM COMBINATION

🏗️ New construction. The $232,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,945.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 85d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 586 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,272 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 586 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,945
• List price: $232,990
• Delta: -8.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12927 Carla Scanlan Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,633 (+4%)	0mo	$255,585	$157	87
12814 Ivy Creek Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-0%)	4mo	$251,690	$161	86
13006 Dianna Lee Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	4mo	$218,990	$154	77
12834 Shaily Faith Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+2%)	1mo	$233,990	$146	76
1507 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,737 (+11%)	2mo	$260,790	$150	75
12814 Shaily Faith Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+2%)	2mo	$223,990	$139	73
12807 Ivy Creek Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+9%)	3mo	$220,991	$129	71
1527 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-13%)	4mo	$228,875	$168	71
12850 Shaily Faith Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-10%)	0mo	$207,990	$147	70
12827 Shaily Faith Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-10%)	1mo	$210,990	$150	67
12818 Shaily Faith Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-10%)	4mo	$216,990	$154	64
12815 Shaily Faith Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-10%)	4mo	$226,990	$161	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-60,800
• Equity at exit: $37,864

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-86,052
• Equity at exit: $21,957

Cash invested: $71,105 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 58 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.9 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $228,992 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 63% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,809/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,306

Max offer price $215,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-175	+0% $-263	+5% $-351	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-419	-5% $-341	+0% $-263	+5% $-185	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-135	-0.5pp $-198	base $-263	+0.5pp $-329	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,486
• Closing costs: $7,618
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11606 Prosperity Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,850	$1.44	10d	1	1.20mi
13702 Sun Bear Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,899	$1.00	85d	1	1.39mi
12215 Crosby Lynchburg Rd Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,400	$1.28	107d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $232,990 Active 586 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $232,990 Active 585 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $232,990 Active 584 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $232,990 Active 583 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $232,990 Active 582 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $232,990 Active 580 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $232,990 Active 579 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $232,990 Active 578 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $232,990 Active 577 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $232,990 Active 576 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $232,990 Active 575 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $232,990 Active 574 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $232,990 Active 573 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $232,990 Active 572 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $232,990 Active 571 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $232,990 Active 570 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $232,990 Active 569 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $232,990 Active 568 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $232,990 Active 567 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $232,990 Active 566 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $232,990 Active 565 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $232,990 Active 564 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $232,990 Active 563 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $232,990 Active 562 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $232,990 Active 561 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $232,990 Active 560 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $232,990 Active 559 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $232,990 Active 558 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $232,990 Active 557 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $232,990 Active 556 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $232,990 Active 555 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $232,990 Active 554 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $232,990 Active 553 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $232,990 Active 552 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $232,990 Active 551 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $232,990 Active 550 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $232,990 Active 549 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $232,990 Active 548 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $232,990 Active 547 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $232,990 Active 546 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $232,990 Active 545 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $232,990 Active 544 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $232,990 Active 543 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $232,990 Active 542 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $232,990 Active 541 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $232,990 Active 540 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $232,990 Active 539 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $232,990 Active 538 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $232,990 Active 537 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $232,990 Active 536 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,225
• − Property taxes: −$3,809
• − Insurance: −$2,067
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − Depreciation: −$7,387
• Taxable loss: −$7,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,850–$23,550 screening

This single-family home in Barrett, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $232,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $226,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $234,990 Zillow