3473 South Park Lot D3 Ave · Lackawanna, NY 14219

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Land public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2022 $72/sqft · 170% above area ↓ 22% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready, nicely remodeled 2 bedroom. Front eat in kitchen, lots of natural light from bay window. Plenty of cabinets, stainless steel double bowl sink. Spacious living room, entry coat closet. Vinyl windows, new entry door and steps. Freshly painted interior. Updated modern bath with vanity, tub/shower. Laundry area for full size washer and dryer, overhead cabinets. New vinyl plank flooring, new carpeting. Newer hot water tank, furnace and storage shed. Both bedrooms have decent size closets. Bedroom 2 has built in drawers. Conveniently located on bus line in well maintained community. Close to shopping and dining. Star tax credit eligible. 1 pet allowed per home.

Key facts

• Raised breakfast bar
• Eat in kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINETS
• RAISED BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL DOUBLE SINK
• DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 85; Lot is rectangular and near public transit
• HOA & community: Has land lease ($595)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home (Eagle River); 1 story; Existing construction; Private road frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; PEX plumbing; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Varies throughout
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Pantry; Primary suite with bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary; Sliding glass door(s); Window treatments; Drapes; Thermal windows; See remarks / other
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with accessible utilities; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 19 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $65k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.45%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $28,260
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 130.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $21,475
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $60,083
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14219

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $653

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Knowlton Ave Lackawanna, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	17d	1	0.74mi
4227 E Allen St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	2d	1	0.94mi
3400 McKinley Pkwy Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	908	$1,330	$1.46	2d	1	1.00mi
133 Orchard Pl Lackawanna, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,855	$2.65	2d	12	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $65,000 Active 734-char remark
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $29,900 Active 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Move in ready, nicely remodeled 2 bedroom. Front eat in kitchen, lots of natural light from bay window. Plenty of cabinets, stainless steel double bowl sink. Spacious living room, entry coat closet. Vinyl windows, new entry door and steps. Freshly painted interior. Updated modern bath with vanity, tub/shower. Laundry area for full size washer and dryer, overhead cabinets. New vinyl plank flooring, new carpeting. Newer hot water tank, furnace and storage shed. Both bedrooms have decent size closets. Bedroom 2 has built in drawers. Conveniently located on bus line in well maintained community. Close to shopping and dining. Star tax credit eligible. 1 pet allowed per home.

17. 2026-03-09
    historical
18. 2026-01-05
    soldstatus $29,900 Closed
19. 2026-01-03
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-09
    listed $31,500 Active
21. 2025-10-01
    soldstatus $21,000 Closed
22. 2025-09-13
    status Pending
23. 2025-09-09
    listed $85,000 Active
24. 2025-07-16
    listed $21,900 Active
25. 2025-03-18
    soldstatus $19,500 Closed
26. 2025-03-12
    status Pending
27. 2025-01-25
    price $74,900
28. 2024-11-18
    listed $21,900 Active
29. 2024-10-11
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
30. 2024-10-05
    status Pending
31. 2024-07-28
    price $76,900
32. 2024-07-27
    price $79,800
33. 2024-04-22
    price $33,900
34. 2024-03-04
    listed $35,900 Active
35. 2024-01-28
    listed $79,900 Active
36. 2023-11-15
    soldstatus $27,900 Closed Sale or Rented
37. 2023-10-18
    status Pending Sale
38. 2023-10-09
    listed $27,900 Active
39. 2023-06-17
    historical
40. 2023-06-04
    listed $33,900 Active
41. 2023-05-12
    soldstatus $91,782 Closed Sale or Rented
42. 2023-05-04
    soldstatus $21,500 Closed Sale or Rented
43. 2023-04-29
    status Pending Sale
44. 2023-03-20
    status Pending Sale
45. 2023-02-15
    listed $91,782 Active
46. 2023-01-10
    listed $21,500 Active
47. 2022-11-17
    soldstatus $19,900 Closed Sale or Rented
48. 2022-11-13
    status Pending Sale
49. 2022-09-07
    soldstatus $28,900 Closed Sale or Rented
50. 2022-08-30
    status Pending Sale

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $5,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,284
• After-tax cash flow: $4,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,894

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.33%
• Current HPI: 332.7314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

54 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-05 Sold (MLS) $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $31,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-01 Sold (MLS) $21,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $21,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-18 Sold (MLS) $19,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-11-18 Listed $21,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-11 Sold (MLS) $30,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-07-28 Price Changed $76,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $79,800 WNYREIS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $33,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $35,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-28 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-15 Sold (MLS) $27,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-10-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-10-09 Listed $27,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-06-17 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-06-04 Listed $33,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-05-12 Sold (MLS) $91,782 WNYREIS
• 2023-05-04 Sold (MLS) $21,500 WNYREIS
• 2023-04-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-03-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-02-15 Listed $91,782 WNYREIS
• 2023-01-10 Listed $21,500 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-17 Sold (MLS) $19,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-09-07 Sold (MLS) $28,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-08-10 Listed $28,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-10 Listed $19,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-03-27 Sold (MLS) $13,400 WNYREIS
• 2020-03-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-01-11 Listed $13,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) $8,800 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-25 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-14 Price Changed $10,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-03-06 Price Changed $11,500 WNYREIS
• 2019-02-17 Price Changed $12,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-12-16 Listed $13,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-05-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-01-07 Listed $19,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-10-01 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $14,400 WNYREIS
• 2013-09-12 Listed $15,500 WNYREIS
• 2001-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+71.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,067 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.