8499 S Schoolhouse Ln · Sunsites, AZ 85643

$39,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,563 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1961 2.02 ac lot ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Over 2 acres with 1960's territorial house, well, and yard. Good size and location. Seller may carry. As-is terms apply.

Key facts

• Yard
• Well
• Over 2 acres

Tags

• OVER 2 ACRES
• TERRITORIAL HOUSE
• WELL
• YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $973 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.2% vs local median 4.3% in Sunsites — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Willcox Unified District (4170) (town): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 249 in AZ (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.93%
• DSCR: 5.76
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $55,684
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.76×
• Total profit: $128,406
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85643

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $667/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $995	-5% $984	+0% $973	+5% $962	+10% $951
Rent	-10% $848	-5% $911	+0% $973	+5% $1,036	+10% $1,098
Rate	-1.0pp $993	-0.5pp $983	base $973	+0.5pp $963	+1.0pp $953

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   price $39,000
3. 2026-02-03
   price $49,000
4. 2026-01-23
   price $59,000
5. 2026-01-15
   price $69,000
6. 2026-01-05
   listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$667
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $11,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,823
• After-tax cash flow: $8,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willcox Unified District (4170)
• NCES district ID: 0409250
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,077
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8085
• State rank: #133 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sunsites

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,524

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 24% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.30%
• Current HPI: 141.9693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-50.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $39,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $49,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $59,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $69,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $79,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $667 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.