3 Emily Ct · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,050,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2014 1.20 ac lot $938/sqft · 73% above area Est $1222k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Ranch on 1.2 Acre Parcel In Private Cul De Sac In North Estates Area. Low Taxes! Belgian Block Streets surround this 3 Bed; 2.5 Bath w Fully Finished Lower Level w its own Separate Entrance delivers oversized Windows for Plenty of Natural Light. Modern Custom Country Kitchen W/ Stainless Gas Appliances & Custom Copper Sinks Repurposed Vintage Millwork; Wide Plank Floors! Central Vac! I.G.S. new Burner & H.W.H - Nearby Parks with Tennis & Ballfields, Skateparks and Events., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Oversized windows
• 1.2 acre parcel

Tags

• 1.2 ACRE PARCEL
• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• MODERN CUSTOM COUNTRY KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Cedar construction
• Exterior features: Cedar exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Oil heating
• Interior features: Primary bathroom; Finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.05M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $941k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $753k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $753k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,534/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.03M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $591k; list at $1.05M implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $753,390 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,222,346
• List price: $1,050,000
• Delta: -14.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
62 Squiretown Rd	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,056 (-6%)	23mo	$600,000	$568	47
9 Squiretown Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,266 (+13%)	7mo	$910,000	$719	41
16 Gateway Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (+14%)	22mo	$239,990	$188	40
10 Bittersweet Ave S	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (+10%)	14mo	$927,500	$755	37
1 The Cres	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	19mo	$850,000	$708	37
80 Washington Heights Ave	0.75mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,271 (+14%)	4mo	$969,000	$762	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-169,942
• Equity at exit: $156,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-18,631
• Equity at exit: $90,785

Cash invested: $294,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,506
• Tax from tax record: −$625 /mo · $7,501/yr
• Insurance: −$438
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,582
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,315

Max offer price $940,989

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $262,500
• Closing costs: $31,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43B Old Squires Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$8,000	$6.67	15d	1	0.44mi
129 Lamplight Cir Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	734	$3,245	$4.42	6d	12	0.57mi
20A Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1073	$10,000	$9.32	15d	1	0.72mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	25d	1	0.85mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	21d	1	0.94mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	44d	1	1.20mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	25d	1	1.47mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	5d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $1,050,000 Active 700-char remark
2. 2026-04-06
   historical
3. 2025-10-16
   price $1,095,000
4. 2025-09-03
   listed $1,125,000 Active
5. 2019-09-09
   soldstatus $591,000
6. 2019-06-28
   soldstatus $591,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Beautiful Ranch on 1.2 Acre Parcel In Private Cul De Sac In North Estates Area. Low Taxes! Belgian Block Streets surround this 3 Bed; 2.5 Bath w Fully Finished Lower Level w its own Separate Entrance delivers oversized Windows for Plenty of Natural Light. Modern Custom Country Kitchen W/ Stainless Gas Appliances & Custom Copper Sinks Repurposed Vintage Millwork; Wide Plank Floors! Central Vac! I.G.S. new Burner & H.W.H - Nearby Parks with Tennis & Ballfields, Skateparks and Events., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

7. 2019-04-22
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Beautiful Ranch on 1.2 Acre Parcel In Private Cul De Sac In North Estates Area. Low Taxes! Belgian Block Streets surround this 3 Bed; 2.5 Bath w Fully Finished Lower Level w its own Separate Entrance delivers oversized Windows for Plenty of Natural Light. Modern Custom Country Kitchen W/ Stainless Gas Appliances & Custom Copper Sinks Repurposed Vintage Millwork; Wide Plank Floors! Central Vac! I.G.S. new Burner & H.W.H - Nearby Parks with Tennis & Ballfields, Skateparks and Events., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

8. 2019-03-12
   price $599,000

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Beautiful Ranch on 1.2 Acre Parcel In Private Cul De Sac In North Estates Area. Low Taxes! Belgian Block Streets surround this 3 Bed; 2.5 Bath w Fully Finished Lower Level w its own Separate Entrance delivers oversized Windows for Plenty of Natural Light. Modern Custom Country Kitchen W/ Stainless Gas Appliances & Custom Copper Sinks Repurposed Vintage Millwork; Wide Plank Floors! Central Vac! I.G.S. new Burner & H.W.H - Nearby Parks with Tennis & Ballfields, Skateparks and Events., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

9. 2018-12-02
   price $615,000

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Beautiful Ranch on 1.2 Acre Parcel In Private Cul De Sac In North Estates Area. Low Taxes! Belgian Block Streets surround this 3 Bed; 2.5 Bath w Fully Finished Lower Level w its own Separate Entrance delivers oversized Windows for Plenty of Natural Light. Modern Custom Country Kitchen W/ Stainless Gas Appliances & Custom Copper Sinks Repurposed Vintage Millwork; Wide Plank Floors! Central Vac! I.G.S. new Burner & H.W.H - Nearby Parks with Tennis & Ballfields, Skateparks and Events., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

10. 2018-11-15
    price $649,000

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Beautiful Ranch on 1.2 Acre Parcel In Private Cul De Sac In North Estates Area. Low Taxes! Belgian Block Streets surround this 3 Bed; 2.5 Bath w Fully Finished Lower Level w its own Separate Entrance delivers oversized Windows for Plenty of Natural Light. Modern Custom Country Kitchen W/ Stainless Gas Appliances & Custom Copper Sinks Repurposed Vintage Millwork; Wide Plank Floors! Central Vac! I.G.S. new Burner & H.W.H - Nearby Parks with Tennis & Ballfields, Skateparks and Events., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

11. 2018-10-22
    listed $695,000 New

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Beautiful Ranch on 1.2 Acre Parcel In Private Cul De Sac In North Estates Area. Low Taxes! Belgian Block Streets surround this 3 Bed; 2.5 Bath w Fully Finished Lower Level w its own Separate Entrance delivers oversized Windows for Plenty of Natural Light. Modern Custom Country Kitchen W/ Stainless Gas Appliances & Custom Copper Sinks Repurposed Vintage Millwork; Wide Plank Floors! Central Vac! I.G.S. new Burner & H.W.H - Nearby Parks with Tennis & Ballfields, Skateparks and Events., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

12. 2014-08-01
    historical
13. 2014-02-01
    listed $465,000
14. 2014-01-25
    historical
15. 2013-07-25
    listed $495,000
16. 2002-05-14
    soldstatus $230,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,501 · $625/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,623 · $1,052/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,122/yr (+$427/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$58,816
• − Property taxes: −$7,501
• − Insurance: −$5,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,233
• − Management: −$7,233
• − Depreciation: −$30,545
• Taxable loss: −$26,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,281
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+356.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $1,050,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $1,095,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listed $1,125,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $591,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-28 Sold (MLS) $591,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-12 Price Changed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-02 Price Changed $615,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-15 Price Changed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-22 Listed $695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-01 Listed $465,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-25 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,501 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.