HARPER Plan · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$286,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 406 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Front porch
• Large covered lanai

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED WALK IN PANTRY
• LARGE COVERED LANAI
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $286,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan; Inventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1665; Address: 1651 Hummingbird Rd, Winter Haven, FL 33884

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: HARPER; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-625/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 406 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,464 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 406 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-52,460
• Equity at exit: $42,791

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-60,543
• Equity at exit: $24,814

Cash invested: $80,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$359 /mo · $4,305/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,511

Max offer price $279,457

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,748
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2587 Sage Valley Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,300	$1.50	14d	1	0.18mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	3d	1	0.28mi
1504 Hummingbird Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1942	$2,599	$1.34	23d	1	0.28mi
109 Solis Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,086	$1.28	3d	1	0.97mi
301 Majestic Gardens Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1951	$2,020	$1.04	19d	1	1.08mi
2249 9th St SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,449	$0.95	19d	1	1.17mi
2442 Taloncrest Ct Eagle Lake, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,700	$1.46	23d	1	1.19mi
2000 Golden Beak Dr Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,990	$1.29	14d	1	1.28mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	2d	1	1.30mi
2029 Carroll Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,500	$1.19	21d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $286,990 Active 406 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $286,990 Active 405 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $286,990 Active 404 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $286,990 Active 403 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $286,990 Active 401 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $286,990 Active 398 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $286,990 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $286,990 Active 396 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $286,990 Active 395 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $286,990 Active 392 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $286,990 Active 390 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $286,990 Active 389 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $286,990 Active 388 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$4,305
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,347
• − Management: −$2,347
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$5,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,325
• After-tax cash flow: $701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B