117 Southfield Rd · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$974,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 0.99 ac lot Est $871k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, Light & Bright Sits This 5Br, 2.55 Bath Contemporary In Desirable 'The Manors' On Very Private 1 Acre Flag Lot W/Vaulted Ceilings, 4 Skylights, New Wood Floors, Cac, New Roof, Nicely Landscaped With Decking, Igs, Oversized Shed; Close To Schools & Shopping; A Must See!, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

Key facts

• Private flag lot
• Formal dining room
• Brand new kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE FLAG LOT
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• RECENTLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• LUXURIOUS SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway and off-street parking for a total of 7 vehicles; Attached/has 2-car garage
• Security: Security features present
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Propane available; Water connected; Septic tank; Cable available; Phone available; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Three or more levels; Property condition listed as actual; Cleared lot with views
• Construction: Frame, stone, and vinyl siding exterior; Full basement (partial unfinished attic)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Fire pit; Exterior lighting; Mailbox; Rain gutters; Wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Water purifier (owned)
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located across three or more levels
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom includes soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning with ductwork
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Central vacuum; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining; High ceilings; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Quartz/quartzite counters; Recessed lighting; Soaking tub; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup; Floor-to-ceiling windows; Skylight(s); Window screens; Window shutters; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Casement windows; Double-pane insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room with inside hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $975k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $975k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $273k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $335k; list at $975k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $974,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $870,970
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Southfield Rd	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-10%)	3mo	$786,000	$347	72
189 Southfield Rd	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,265 (-10%)	4mo	$500,000	$221	69
24 Pleasant Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-10%)	6mo	$810,000	$358	66
60 May Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,445 (-3%)	7mo	$900,000	$368	61
59 Mastro Rd	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,828 (+13%)	4mo	$880,000	$311	44
80 May Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,600 (+4%)	24mo	$796,000	$306	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $208,550
• Equity at exit: $452,719

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $617,341
• Equity at exit: $709,038

Cash invested: $272,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,832 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,113
• Tax from tax record: −$1,030 /mo · $12,358/yr
• Insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,065
• Net cashflow: $1,218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,290

Max offer price $974,990

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $243,748
• Closing costs: $29,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Mastro Ct Calverton, NY	3.0	2.5	1822	$7,500	$4.12	1d	1	0.98mi
184 Twomey Ave Calverton, NY	3.0	2.0	2718	$12,000	$4.42	1d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $974,990 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $974,990 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $974,990 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $974,990 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $974,990 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   remarks 687-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   listed $974,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,358 · $1,030/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,418 · $1,201/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,060/yr (+$172/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $117,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,615
• − Property taxes: −$12,358
• − Insurance: −$4,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,439
• − Management: −$9,439
• − Depreciation: −$28,363
• Taxable loss: −$1,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$264
• After-tax cash flow: $14,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+322.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $974,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $335,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-03 Sold (MLS) $335,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-06 Listed $349,996 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1991-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $231,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,358 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.