3972 Joslyn Rd · Auburn Hills, MI 48359

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1956 0.48 ac lot Est $302k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A spacious lot, sought-after schools, and a home that simply feels right. Situated on nearly half an acre in the award-winning Lake Orion School District, this 3-bedroom ranch offers a fenced backyard, attached two-car garage, and a partially finished basement that provides flexible living space for a home office, recreation area, workout room, or whatever fits your lifestyle. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Fenced backyard
• Conveniently located

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• LAKE ORION SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Brick construction; Block and stone foundation; Built-up above grade and partially finished below grade
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Shed(s); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing gas oven; Free‑standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Free‑standing gas oven; Free‑standing refrigerator; Microwave; Washer; Partially finished basement; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $250k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $243,723 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.87%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,064
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3988 Joslyn Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+11%)	15mo	$257,000	$143	65
2516 Peters St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+2%)	1mo	$305,000	$185	59
3658 Minton Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,549 (-5%)	6mo	$285,000	$184	59
2430 Judah Rd	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,710 (+5%)	5mo	$565,000	$330	57
3714 Gainesborough Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,409 (-13%)	11mo	$247,000	$175	55
3748 Minton Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,405 (-14%)	7mo	$285,000	$203	53
3945 Queensbury Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,385 (-15%)	9mo	$267,500	$193	52
3400 Chalice Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-6%)	13mo	$190,000	$125	45
1410 W Silverbell Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+3%)	13mo	$441,000	$263	45
3826 Chesterfield Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+8%)	8mo	$275,000	$157	42
3973 Silver Valley Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-14%)	3mo	$285,000	$203	42
3717 Queensbury Rd	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (-14%)	15mo	$260,000	$186	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,422
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,722
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48359

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,711/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,077

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $426	-5% $355	+0% $284	+5% $214	+10% $143
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $188	+0% $284	+5% $381	+10% $477
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $348	base $284	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4694 Baldwin Sq Dr Orion Twp, MI	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1845	$2,525	$1.37	0d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $250,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 531-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $250,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,711 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,281 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$569/yr (+$47/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,711
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,340
• − Management: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$161
• After-tax cash flow: $3,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn Hills

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 24,514
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 10,401
• Household income: $93,125
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 292.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 7% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.39%
• Current HPI: 168.0362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+57.3% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $250,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-11 Listed $250,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-09-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-28 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2018-09-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2018-09-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-24 Listed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-24 Listed $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-09-13 Listed $174,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-13 Listed $174,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-29 Sold (MLS) $140,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-09-29 Sold (MLS) $140,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-08-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-06-01 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-06-01 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $160,790 Public Records
• 2004-12-13 Sold (MLS) $160,790 REALCOMP
• 2004-10-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-10-29 Listed $164,999 REALCOMP
• 2004-07-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-07-21 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 2004-06-01 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2001-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-02 Sold (MLS) $142,000 REALCOMP
• 2001-08-20 Listed $158,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,711 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.