407 Spruce St · Appalachia, VA 24216

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 708 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1950 Est $50k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity! This approximately 700+ sq ft, 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is ready for renovations and priced at just $45,000. Features include a metal roof, covered front porch, fenced yard, and convenient in-town location. Home needs updates and repairs throughout and is being sold as-is. Great potential for a rental property, flip, or affordable investment project. Buyers and buyers agents to verify all information in this listing. All information pulled from public records. Subject to E and O

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Metal roof
• Fenced yard

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED YARD
• IN-TOWN LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property; Property listed as fixer; Zoned R; Not in a subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built with conventional house construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-985/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $31k (32.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($820 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#505 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Union Primary (math 72% / reading 79%, grade A, #207 of 1,108 statewide, top 19%, 861 students, 84% FRL); Union Middle (math 58% / reading 70%, grade B+, #127 of 342 statewide, top 37%, 583 students, 89% FRL); Union High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 601 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 55% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,507 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.04%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,560
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Cedar St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	760 (+7%)	1mo	$24,000	$32	73
604 Blondell Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	768 (+8%)	2mo	$53,500	$70	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-12,247
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-16,296
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24216

• Home prices YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $924

Max offer price $30,507

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $180 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $369 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 104.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 100% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$788
• − Management: −$788
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable loss: −$1,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$358
• After-tax cash flow: $-627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Appalachia

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #22417

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Appalachia, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,356

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.82%
• Current HPI: 112.8878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $45,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $180 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.