The Ryan Plan · Newport, NC 28570

$347,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 482 Days on market

Good condition $25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 481 days

🏗️ New construction. The $347,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $354,882.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $348k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($82k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $348k).
• Recommended offer: $306k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#385 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newport Elementary (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 645 students, 100% FRL); Newport Middle (math 39% / reading 56%, grade C-, #140 of 475 statewide, top 30%, 378 students, 98% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,760/mo this rent would consume 201% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $99k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 482 days — a 12% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $306,064 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 482 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.27%
• DSCR: 4.66
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,882
• List price: $347,800
• Delta: -2.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Delaware Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,406 (0%)	7mo	$343,045	$244	70
104 Bayberry Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-1%)	2mo	$268,900	$193	69
115 Delaware Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+9%)	6mo	$351,258	$229	59
129 Bayberry Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-9%)	10mo	$240,000	$188	50
325 Foxhall Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	17mo	$227,000	$179	42
332 Foxhall Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-14%)	9mo	$250,000	$206	41
328 Foxhall Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-12%)	16mo	$245,333	$197	38
389 Nine Foot Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-8%)	24mo	$150,000	$116	33
312 Foxhall Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,247 (-11%)	24mo	$220,000	$176	32
118 Palmetta Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,616 (+15%)	24mo	$215,000	$133	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $376,593
• Equity at exit: $52,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.93×
• Total profit: $887,437
• Equity at exit: $30,684

Cash invested: $99,367 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.0 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $310,000 ($216/sqft)
• Median days on market: 102 d
• This list price: 55% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,323/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,470
• Net cashflow: $6,813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,136

Max offer price $354,882

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,058	-5% $6,935	+0% $6,813	+5% $6,690	+10% $6,567
Rent	-10% $5,884	-5% $6,348	+0% $6,813	+5% $7,277	+10% $7,742
Rate	-1.0pp $6,991	-0.5pp $6,903	base $6,813	+0.5pp $6,721	+1.0pp $6,627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,720
• Closing costs: $10,646
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 Masontown Rd Newport, NC	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	37d	1	0.53mi
101 Palmetta Dr Newport, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,655	$1.38	36d	1	0.62mi
602 Villa CV Newport, NC	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,925	$1.49	35d	1	0.67mi
515 Tom Mann Rd Lot 111 Newport, NC	3.0	2.0	901	$1,329	$1.48	50d	1	0.72mi
515 Tom Mann Rd #41 Newport, NC	3.0	2.0	924	$1,329	$1.44	48d	1	0.72mi
419 Red Fox Trl Newport, NC	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,050	$0.96	51d	1	0.75mi
312 Kathryn Ct Newport, NC	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,795	$1.29	51d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 175 Independence Blvd, Newport NC 28570List price $337,800Listing status: Active
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $25

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (The Ryan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1406

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan model home named The Ryan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $347,800 Active 482 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $347,800 Active 481 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $347,800 Active 480 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $347,800 Active 479 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $347,800 Active 478 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $347,800 Active 476 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $347,800 Active 475 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $347,800 Active 474 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $347,800 Active 473 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $347,800 Active 472 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $347,800 Active 471 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $347,800 Active 470 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $347,800 Active 469 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $347,800 Active 468 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $347,800 Active 467 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $347,800 Active 466 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $347,800 Active 465 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $347,800 Active 464 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $347,800 Active 463 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $347,800 Active 462 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $347,800 Active 461 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $347,800 Active 460 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $347,800 Active 459 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $347,800 Active 458 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $347,800 Active 457 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $347,800 Active 456 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $347,800 Active 455 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $347,800 Active 454 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $347,800 Active 453 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $347,800 Active 452 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $347,800 Active 451 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $347,800 Active 450 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $347,800 Active 449 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $347,800 Active 448 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $347,800 Active 447 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $347,800 Active 446 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $347,800 Active 445 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $347,800 Active 444 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $347,800 Active 443 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $347,800 Active 442 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $347,800 Active 441 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $347,800 Active 440 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $347,800 Active 439 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $347,800 Active 438 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $347,800 Active 437 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $347,800 Active 436 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $347,800 Active 435 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $347,800 Active 433 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $347,800 Active 432 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $347,800 Active 431 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $141,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,879
• − Property taxes: −$5,323
• − Insurance: −$1,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,289
• − Management: −$11,289
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$10,324
• Taxable income: $80,938
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19,425
• After-tax cash flow: $62,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with recent renovations, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring laminate

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Newport Elementary D- NC #542/1,410 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Newport Middle C- NC #140/475 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High West Carteret High A- NC #89/535 Nat'l #1,465/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Newport

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #15094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport, NC
• County: Carteret County · 73,443 people
• City population: 22,197
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 175 Independence Blvd, Newport NC 28570List price $337,800Listing status: Active
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $25

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (The Ryan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1406

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan model home named The Ryan