4911 Cimmaron Trl · Blum, TX 76093

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1974 5,000 sqft lot $7/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE IMPROVEMENT WITH MOTIVATED SELLERS!! Check out this NEWLY REMODELED HOME in lovely Fisherman's Paradise! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is perfect for your next investment property or those just looking for a peaceful spot with scenic views. This major make over was complete with a new roof, all new windows, new tiled shower tub combo, new cabinets, bathroom vanity, texture, paint, range oven and stove, lighting, and flooring!! A new covered porch and steps were installed, and foundation was redone. There is a freshly painted 16X16 storage shed on the property, and septic has been recently serviced. Just a couple of blocks from Hamm Creek State Park! So bring your boat and escape to a mini lake community while being just minutes from shopping, dining, and schools! This beautiful area also features a community playground and picnic area. While there in no immediate access to the river, you are just minutes from fishing on the Brazos! Come check out this adorable home! It won't last long!

Key facts

• Newly remodeled home
• New cabinets
• New bathroom vanity

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED HOME
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW TILED SHOWER TUB COMBO
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW BATHROOM VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#956 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Rio Vista ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #588 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.43%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $57,385
• Equity at exit: $75,955

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $151,340
• Equity at exit: $120,650

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76093

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $580	+0% $535	+5% $490	+10% $445
Rent	-10% $387	-5% $461	+0% $535	+5% $610	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $576	base $535	+0.5pp $494	+1.0pp $452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $159,000 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT WITH MOTIVATED SELLERS!! Check out this NEWLY REMODELED HOME in lovely Fisherman's Paradise! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is perfect for your next investment property or those just looking for a peaceful spot with scenic views. This major make over was complete with a new roof, all new windows, new tiled shower tub combo, new cabinets, bathroom vanity, texture, paint, range oven and stove, lighting, and flooring!! A new covered porch and steps were installed, and foundation was redone. There is a freshly painted 16X16 storage shed on the property, and septic has been recently serviced. Just a couple of blocks from Hamm Creek State Park! So bring your boat and escape to a mini lake community while being just minutes from shopping, dining, and schools! This beautiful area also features a community playground and picnic area. While there in no immediate access to the river, you are just minutes from fishing on the Brazos! Come check out this adorable home! It won't last long!

16. 2026-03-24
    price $169,000 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT WITH MOTIVATED SELLERS!! Check out this NEWLY REMODELED HOME in lovely Fisherman's Paradise! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is perfect for your next investment property or those just looking for a peaceful spot with scenic views. This major make over was complete with a new roof, all new windows, new tiled shower tub combo, new cabinets, bathroom vanity, texture, paint, range oven and stove, lighting, and flooring!! A new covered porch and steps were installed, and foundation was redone. There is a freshly painted 16X16 storage shed on the property, and septic has been recently serviced. Just a couple of blocks from Hamm Creek State Park! So bring your boat and escape to a mini lake community while being just minutes from shopping, dining, and schools! This beautiful area also features a community playground and picnic area. While there in no immediate access to the river, you are just minutes from fishing on the Brazos! Come check out this adorable home! It won't last long!

17. 2026-01-15
    listed $175,000 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT WITH MOTIVATED SELLERS!! Check out this NEWLY REMODELED HOME in lovely Fisherman's Paradise! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is perfect for your next investment property or those just looking for a peaceful spot with scenic views. This major make over was complete with a new roof, all new windows, new tiled shower tub combo, new cabinets, bathroom vanity, texture, paint, range oven and stove, lighting, and flooring!! A new covered porch and steps were installed, and foundation was redone. There is a freshly painted 16X16 storage shed on the property, and septic has been recently serviced. Just a couple of blocks from Hamm Creek State Park! So bring your boat and escape to a mini lake community while being just minutes from shopping, dining, and schools! This beautiful area also features a community playground and picnic area. While there in no immediate access to the river, you are just minutes from fishing on the Brazos! Come check out this adorable home! It won't last long!

18. 2025-12-25
    historical
19. 2025-11-12
    price $175,000
20. 2025-10-21
    price $180,000
21. 2025-08-13
    price $190,000
22. 2025-06-25
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 2024-07-24
    soldstatus
24. 2005-06-28
    soldstatus
25. 2005-06-08
    historical
26. 2005-04-11
    listed $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,426/yr (+$202/mo · 501.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $4,025
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $5,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837200
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,983
• Composite: 26.88/100
• National rank: #7099
• State rank: #588 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blum

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #17017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,193

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Current HPI: 233.603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+835.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2024-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-06-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-04-11 Listed $17,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.