11914 Hickory Ln · Tavares, FL 32778

$144,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1968 5,250 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfectly positioned in the highly desirable community of Imperial Terrace West, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home combines a thoughtful layout with everyday practicality. The interior features expansive living areas, including an oversized Florida room with ample windows for natural sunlight and a versatile additional bedroom/den/hobby room. A split floor plan strategically separates the bedrooms to enhance privacy. At the heart of the home, the bright, functional kitchen boasts a built-in oven, built-in microwave, a closet pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar for casual dining. The property offers ample storage both inside and out, including two sheds-one of which is equipped as a laundry

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Florida room
• Closet pantry

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• BUILT-IN OVEN
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE
• CLOSET PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Directions: From Tavares, proceed west on 441, turn left on Blanton Ln, turn right on Hickory Ln, house on left
• Financial info: Total annual fees $300
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee $25; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, golf carts OK, pool; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/high‑speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Double wide; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Enclosed rear porch; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,439/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 586% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $145k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,859 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.81%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $36,899
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $117,573
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $906

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $988	-5% $947	+0% $906	+5% $865	+10% $824
Rent	-10% $714	-5% $810	+0% $906	+5% $1,003	+10% $1,099
Rate	-1.0pp $979	-0.5pp $943	base $906	+0.5pp $869	+1.0pp $831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $144,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $154,900
16. 2026-03-14
    listed $159,900 Active
17. 2019-08-28
    soldstatus $63,000
18. 2005-11-02
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 2002-04-16
    soldstatus $55,500
20. 1990-02-01
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,098 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,098 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $9,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $8,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+384.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2002-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,098 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.