551 Summit Trail Trl #193 · Granby, CO 80446

$231,998

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily · 267 Days on market

Built 2020 Est $275k · 16% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Welcome Home * This stunning property features a large, spacious living room with built-in shelving and an LED fireplace for ambiance and warmth, perfect for cozy evenings. The open concept kitchen with generous kitchen island offers ample storage and prep area. Stainless steel appliances, and stylish floating shelves and range hood make it a chef's delight. Enjoy your morning coffee at the built-in coffee bar, adding convenience and charm to your daily routine. This home includes three bedrooms and two bathrooms, highlighted by a large master suite with a walk-in closet, providing plenty of space for your belongings. The huge laundry room is equipped with a sink, an abundance of cabinet

Key facts

• Led fireplace
• Open concept kitchen
• Kitchen island

Tags

• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• LED FIREPLACE
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FLOATING SHELVES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities with trash service, spa/hot tub, storage, and fitness center; Land is leased; land lease $815 per month

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service on property
• Home design: Mobile home; Residential property
• Exterior features: Level lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Oven; Microwave; Disposal; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $232k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #300 of 966 statewide, top 32%, 331 students, 38% FRL); East Grand Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 290 students, 22% FRL); Middle Park High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #78 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 406 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 424 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,158 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.27%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,666
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
551 Summit Trl #142	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-6%)	16mo	$255,000	$159	72
551 Summit Trail Trl #22	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (-7%)	12mo	$255,000	$161	68
551 Summit Trail Trl #34	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-6%)	21mo	$285,000	$178	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,501
• Equity at exit: $34,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $19,592
• Equity at exit: $20,059

Cash invested: $64,959 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$290 /mo · $3,480/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $231,998

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $537	-5% $457	+0% $376	+5% $296	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $271	+0% $376	+5% $482	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $435	base $376	+0.5pp $316	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,000
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,998 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $231,998 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $231,998 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $231,998 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $231,998 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $231,998 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $231,998 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $231,998 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $231,998 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $231,998 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $231,998 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $231,998 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $231,998 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $231,998 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $231,998 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    status Active
17. 2026-04-30
    historical
18. 2026-04-27
    status Active
19. 2026-04-15
    historical
20. 2026-03-26
    price $231,998
21. 2026-01-21
    price $232,400
22. 2025-11-12
    price $234,900
23. 2025-09-27
    price $239,900
24. 2025-08-29
    listed $259,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,995
• − Property taxes: −$3,480
• − Insurance: −$2,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,558
• − Management: −$2,558
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable income: $971
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$233
• After-tax cash flow: $4,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 5,874 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — GCAR
• 2026-04-30 Delisted — GCAR
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — GCAR
• 2026-04-15 Delisted — GCAR
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $231,998 GCAR
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $232,400 GCAR
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $234,900 GCAR
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $239,900 GCAR
• 2025-08-29 Listed $259,999 GCAR