1688 K St · West Belmar, NJ 07719

$250,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 3,484 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a dollhouse. Beautiful deep lot near everything but off the beaten track. Just move in this charming cottage with updated kitchen and bath.Newer gas heat and central air.All newer appliances included.Close enough to beaches for a sweet summer cottage or perfect for young single or married couple.Kitchen and bath are newer stackable washer and dryer sunny rooms front and rear.Plenty of off street parking quiet street near to everything including beaches,parks and train. A must see.

Key facts

• Sought-after schools
• Prime location
• 3,484 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• SOUGHT-AFTER SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Cooling present (other type)
• Interior features: Blinds/Shades; Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#180 in NJ, #4,812 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wall Township Public School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #145 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.29%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $584,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1116 17th Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0	838 (-4%)	8mo	$580,000	$692	84
923 Woodland Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	904 (+4%)	4mo	$450,000	$498	77
1236 Maplewood Rd	0.29mi	2/1.5	923 (+6%)	3mo	$620,000	$672	72
1027 2nd Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	928 (+7%)	6mo	$540,000	$582	62
1600 W Pine Tree Way	0.19mi	1/1.0 (-1)	744 (-14%)	13mo	$500,000	$672	51
1429 Marconi Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0	960 (+10%)	3mo	$505,000	$526	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $6,106
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $116,857
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07719

• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,966 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,333/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1008 17th Ave Wall Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	720	$7,500	$10.42	3d	1	0.11mi
99 River Ct Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	938	$3,400	$3.62	7d	1	0.27mi
612 16th Ave Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	25d	1	0.62mi
1000 River Rd Unit 4G Belmar, NJ	1.0	1.0	910	$2,800	$3.08	19d	1	0.67mi
507 15th Ave Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	768	$2,000	$2.60	25d	1	0.76mi
407 13th Ave Unit 1/2 Belmar, NJ	1.0	1.0	840	$2,300	$2.74	25d	1	0.88mi
323 14th Ave Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	624	$9,000	$14.42	15d	1	0.92mi
1808 B St Belmar, NJ	2.0	2.0	952	$12,000	$12.61	1d	1	0.96mi
1710 B St Belmar, NJ	3.0	1.0	800	$13,000	$16.25	25d	1	0.97mi
227 16th Ave Unit A Belmar, NJ	3.0	1.5	1087	$3,025	$2.78	20d	1	0.99mi
206 16th Ave Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,800	$1.69	13d	1	1.03mi
206 16th Ave Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,000	$1.88	3d	1	1.03mi
206 16th Ave Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,000	$1.88	25d	1	1.03mi
200 15th Ave Belmar, NJ	1.0	1.0	616	$8,500	$13.80	19d	1	1.08mi
1900 Surf Ave Belmar, NJ	3.0	2.0	911	$3,250	$3.57	7d	1	1.11mi
205 10th Ave Unit 4 Belmar, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$3,050	$3.39	25d	1	1.17mi
520 Brighton Ave Spring Lake, NJ	2.0	2.0	1023	$4,975	$4.86	43d	1	1.23mi
903 Ocean Ave #1 Belmar, NJ	2.0	1.0	640	$7,500	$11.72	25d	1	1.31mi
96 5th Ave #4 Belmar, NJ	1.0	1.0	720	$8,000	$11.11	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-05-27
    listed $250,000 Active
11. 2023-12-06
    soldstatus $350,000
12. 2022-04-26
    historical
13. 2022-03-22
    listed $452,900 Active
14. 2012-11-19
    soldstatus $147,500 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    What a dollhouse. Beautiful deep lot near everything but off the beaten track. Just move in this charming cottage with updated kitchen and bath.Newer gas heat and central air.All newer appliances included.Close enough to beaches for a sweet summer cottage or perfect for young single or married couple.Kitchen and bath are newer stackable washer and dryer sunny rooms front and rear.Plenty of off street parking quiet street near to everything including beaches,parks and train. A must see.

15. 2012-08-18
    listed $154,500 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    What a dollhouse. Beautiful deep lot near everything but off the beaten track. Just move in this charming cottage with updated kitchen and bath.Newer gas heat and central air.All newer appliances included.Close enough to beaches for a sweet summer cottage or perfect for young single or married couple.Kitchen and bath are newer stackable washer and dryer sunny rooms front and rear.Plenty of off street parking quiet street near to everything including beaches,parks and train. A must see.

16. 2012-04-05
    listed $159,900
17. 2011-09-29
    listed $165,000
18. 2011-03-07
    listed $244,000
19. 2009-11-27
    listed $243,900
20. 2009-02-20
    listed $270,000
21. 2007-09-12
    soldstatus $286,000
22. 2004-03-15
    soldstatus $200,000
23. 2004-01-13
    historical
24. 2003-11-01
    listed $209,000
25. 2000-08-10
    soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,333 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,779 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: +$446/yr (+$37/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,333
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,848
• − Management: −$2,848
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $2,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$490
• After-tax cash flow: $5,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wall Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416890
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $92,842
• Composite: 44.31/100
• National rank: #2831
• State rank: #145 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Belmar

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #4812

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Belmar, NJ
• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,138
• Household income: $119,828
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 513.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Guatemala, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -537.99%
• Current HPI: 379.3961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.08%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+216.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $250,000 MOMLS
• 2023-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-26 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2022-03-22 Listed $452,900 MOMLS
• 2012-11-19 Sold (MLS) $147,500 MOMLS
• 2012-08-18 Listed $154,500 MOMLS
• 2012-04-05 Listed $159,900 MOMLS
• 2011-09-29 Listed $165,000 MOMLS
• 2011-03-07 Listed $244,000 MOMLS
• 2009-11-27 Listed $243,900 MOMLS
• 2009-02-20 Listed $270,000 MOMLS
• 2007-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $286,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-13 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2003-11-01 Listed $209,000 MOMLS
• 2000-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,333 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.