4117 Lake Bayshore Dr · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other · 23 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2BR/2BA condo. Enjoy the 4rth Floor view of the lake from the sitting rm and Master bedrm. This community features a heated pool looking over the lake. Come home to this great unit. NO RESTRICTIONS!! NEEDS WORK. This building contains new plumbing A new roof will have new electrical and new sheetrock When completed by HOA. Will need to be finished. AC installed 2017, new airducts installed 2025. Water heater installed 2019. Comes with1yr old stainless steel appliances LG fridge, stove , dishwasher, microwave.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• View of the lake
• Heated pool

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• VIEW OF THE LAKE
• HEATED POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $883 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.8% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.06%
• DSCR: 4.74
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $44,515
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.47×
• Total profit: $94,126
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $914	-5% $898	+0% $883	+5% $867	+10% $851
Rent	-10% $763	-5% $823	+0% $883	+5% $942	+10% $1,002
Rate	-1.0pp $905	-0.5pp $894	base $883	+0.5pp $871	+1.0pp $859

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	4d	1	0.04mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	15d	1	0.16mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	22d	1	0.16mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	24d	1	0.17mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	2d	14	0.40mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	24d	1	0.43mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	24d	5	0.45mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	2d	10	0.47mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	24d	1	0.55mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	24d	1	0.55mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	3d	1	0.64mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	3d	1	0.71mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	12d	1	0.74mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	20d	1	0.76mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	24d	1	0.76mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	24d	1	0.79mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	16d	1	0.80mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	12d	1	0.82mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	12d	1	0.82mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	24d	1	0.84mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	24d	1	0.86mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	16d	1	0.87mi
2315 17th Street Ln W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	24d	1	0.92mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	4d	16	0.92mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	12d	1	0.95mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	24d	1	1.01mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	24d	1	1.02mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	24d	1	1.03mi
2403 21st Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	24d	1	1.04mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	16d	1	1.04mi
655 Park Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	816	$1,100	$1.35	24d	1	1.05mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	24d	1	1.05mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	16d	2	1.07mi
5062 Live Oak Cir Unit 5026 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,545	$1.72	16d	1	1.08mi
2002 20th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	16d	1	1.09mi
5026 Water Oak Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	24d	1	1.10mi
5027 31st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$3,600	$3.70	22d	1	1.10mi
2127 13th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	24d	1	1.10mi
4630 5th St W Ste 6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	12d	1	1.11mi
425 30th Ave W Unit C308 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,590	$1.72	24d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $45,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $10,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,520
• After-tax cash flow: $8,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2BR/2BA condo has average interior and exterior conditions, with potential for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value
• Rental Refrigerator and microwave — Appliances are a must-have for renters
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — New flooring improves the look and feel of the bathrooms

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental Refrigerator and microwave — Appliances are a must-have for renters ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — New flooring improves the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $45,000 FSBO.com