Chatfield Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily · 470 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The single-story Chatfield plan is packed full of great features. As you enter the home through the front porch, your open kitchen with island greets you as it flows into the café and gathering room. A convenient laundry room sits outside of the owner's suite and secondary bedrooms for easy access and the private owner's retreat boasts dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 469 days

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE OWNER'S RETREAT
• DUAL BATHROOM VANITIES
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $282,189.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-435/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 470 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,265 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 470 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,189
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -0.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16148 Sepia Manor St	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,850 (-4%)	1mo	$264,640	$143	91
16124 Sepia Manor St	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,036 (+6%)	3mo	$297,470	$146	84
15835 Dove Hollow Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (+1%)	4mo	$335,000	$173	74
14947 Scarlet Branch Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,950 (+1%)	8mo	$320,000	$164	59
15632 Boulder Lake Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,028 (+5%)	2mo	$338,180	$167	56
14463 Cardinal Forest Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,150 (+12%)	7mo	$299,000	$139	55
14571 Clementine Hall Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,028 (+5%)	8mo	$338,420	$167	54
14594 Clementine Hall Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-7%)	4mo	$334,750	$187	52
16554 Aldrich St	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,800 (-6%)	7mo	$385,000	$214	52
15898 Hayes Market Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,148 (+12%)	9mo	$374,630	$174	46
17102 Crimson Crest Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,067 (+7%)	8mo	$310,000	$150	44
14960 Scarlet Branch Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-13%)	0mo	$295,000	$176	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-47,265
• Equity at exit: $42,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-40,954
• Equity at exit: $24,399

Cash invested: $79,013 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,480
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$353 /mo · $4,233/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,469

Max offer price $276,943

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,547
• Closing costs: $8,466
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	1.07mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	43d	1	1.11mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	43d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 470 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 469 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 468 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 467 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 465 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 461 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 460 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 459 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,990 Active 456 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 455 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 454 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 453 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 452 DOM
14. 2025-12-27
    price $279,990 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The single-story Chatfield plan is packed full of great features. As you enter the home through the front porch, your open kitchen with island greets you as it flows into the café and gathering room. A convenient laundry room sits outside of the owner's suite and secondary bedrooms for easy access and the private owner's retreat boasts dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet.

15. 2025-03-06
    listed $298,990 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The single-story Chatfield plan is packed full of great features. As you enter the home through the front porch, your open kitchen with island greets you as it flows into the café and gathering room. A convenient laundry room sits outside of the owner's suite and secondary bedrooms for easy access and the private owner's retreat boasts dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,807
• − Property taxes: −$4,233
• − Insurance: −$1,411
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − Depreciation: −$8,209
• Taxable loss: −$5,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story Chatfield plan is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or tenant to move in and enjoy a move-in-ready home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $298,990 Zillow