46 Lookout Trce · The Galena Territory, IL 61036

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · Other · 6 Days on market

Built 1985 1.35 ac lot $117/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Timber-Peg home on 1.35 wooded acres. This rustic home is a great place to get away from the every day! Located at the end of a cul-de-sac, on a large lot with mature trees. Enjoy the wood burning fireplace within the natural wood interior. Vaulted and beamed ceilings with several skylights. Newer patio doors heading out to the main level deck. The lower level has 2 bedrooms and a full bath. There is a bonus room in the lower level as well. New roof in 2017. (jc33)

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Wooded acres
• Spacious lot

Tags

• TIMBER-PEG HOME
• WOODED ACRES
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• NATURAL WOOD INTERIORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 1.35 acres
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $1,404 (about $117/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence (house); Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in The Galena Territory — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#313 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Scales Mound CUSD 211 (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #216 of 919 in IL (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Scales Mound Elem School (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,043 of 2,056 statewide, top 51%, 127 students, 0% FRL); Scales Mound Jr High School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #95 of 665 statewide, top 15%, 61 students, 0% FRL); Scales Mound High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #179 of 693 statewide, top 27%, 69 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Scales Mound CUSD 211 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 58 units permitted in Jo Daviess County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jo Daviess County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $265,000 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-65,745
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-75,814
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61036

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,115/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,945

Max offer price $273,858

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Cogan Dr Galena, IL	4.0	3.0	2550	$2,650	$1.04	44d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $117 · $1,404/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1261-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $315,000 Active 1261-char remark
3. 2018-10-24
   soldstatus $140,000 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Timber-Peg home on 1.35 wooded acres. This rustic home is a great place to get away from the every day! Located at the end of a cul-de-sac, on a large lot with mature trees. Enjoy the wood burning fireplace within the natural wood interior. Vaulted and beamed ceilings with several skylights. Newer patio doors heading out to the main level deck. The lower level has 2 bedrooms and a full bath. There is a bonus room in the lower level as well. New roof in 2017. (jc33)

4. 2018-10-24
   soldstatus $140,000

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Timber-Peg home on 1.35 wooded acres. This rustic home is a great place to get away from the every day! Located at the end of a cul-de-sac, on a large lot with mature trees. Enjoy the wood burning fireplace within the natural wood interior. Vaulted and beamed ceilings with several skylights. Newer patio doors heading out to the main level deck. The lower level has 2 bedrooms and a full bath. There is a bonus room in the lower level as well. New roof in 2017. (jc33)

5. 2018-09-23
   listed $142,900 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Timber-Peg home on 1.35 wooded acres. This rustic home is a great place to get away from the every day! Located at the end of a cul-de-sac, on a large lot with mature trees. Enjoy the wood burning fireplace within the natural wood interior. Vaulted and beamed ceilings with several skylights. Newer patio doors heading out to the main level deck. The lower level has 2 bedrooms and a full bath. There is a bonus room in the lower level as well. New roof in 2017. (jc33)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,115 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,133 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$5,115
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$8,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,966
• After-tax cash flow: $-829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scales Mound CUSD 211
• NCES district ID: 1735610
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $59,698
• Composite: 41.79/100
• National rank: #7155
• State rank: #216 of 919 in IL

Livability — The Galena Territory

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #6203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Galena Territory, IL
• Population (ZIP): 7,014

Population outlook (Jo Daviess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,420 people
• By 2030: 19,405 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 17,244 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 15,357 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 11,760 · -42.4%
• By 2100: 8,355 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jo Daviess

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 40.8% · R 57.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: 10.5pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+16.5 2016: R+14.9 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.06%
• Current HPI: 156.4718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+123.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $320,000 NWIAR
• 2026-05-05 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $315,000 NWIAR
• 2018-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-24 Sold (MLS) $140,000 NWIAR
• 2018-09-23 Listed $142,900 NWIAR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,115 · +25.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.