5510 W Limberlost Ave · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$265,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · Other public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2007 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1400sq ft 4 bed 2 3/4 bath split level 1/2 acre corner lot well, Septic, electricity natural gas, large circle driveway with extra large RV parking future detached garage Area. fenced yard custom composite fence, beautiful lush green grass landscaping. House currently in the middle of full renovation, new kitchen cabinets, Countertops , elaborate modern recessed, LED lighting throughout kitchen and living area. complete renovation of all three bathrooms, new Vanities, tubs, walk in shower, surrounds custom shower doors and lighting. New paint carpet and laminate flooring throughout entire house. All new windows and New roofing, sienna (driftwood Desert tan) architectural shingles. This hous

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Paved road access
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to other units; Built in 2007; Wood frame (2x6 construction)
• Construction: Wood frame (2x6); Composition/shingle/asphalt roof; Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Landscaping; Motion-activated exterior lighting; TV antenna

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Wood countertops
• Bedrooms: 4 total bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (2 full, 1 three-quarter)
• Interior features: Fireplace; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Smoke detector(s); Vaulted ceilings; Wood countertops; BR/BA on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knik Elementary School (math 52% / reading 46%, grade D, #60 of 156 statewide, top 38%, 245 students, 46% FRL); Wasilla Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #18 of 36 statewide, top 49%, 610 students, 44% FRL); Wasilla High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 848 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $239,081 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-27,970
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,111
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,907/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,100

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $305	+0% $230	+5% $155	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $135	+0% $230	+5% $324	+10% $419
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $297	base $230	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4980 Kelsi Loop Unit 1 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,350	$1.81	24d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $265,000 Active 820-char remark
2. 2019-12-30
   soldstatus
3. 2008-07-14
   soldstatus
4. 2000-04-19
   listed $4,450

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,907 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,530 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$623/yr (+$52/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,907
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$1,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$405
• After-tax cash flow: $3,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+5855.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $265,000 AKMLS
• 2019-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-19 Listed $4,450 AKMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,907 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.