15 Bristle Bark Pl · Sacramento, CA 95835

$569,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2016 3,607 sqft lot $254/sqft · 8% below area Est $619k · 8% under $84/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this fantastic home in North Natomas ready for you to call yours! This is located close to the airport, freeways, and the new Costco! Step into luxury flooring, open layout with upgraded counters and stainless appliances and 4 bedrooms with 3 bathrooms! You will not want to miss out on this wonderful home! With a 2 car driveway, 2 car garage and sizable backyard, what more could you ask for? At only 10 years old at this fantastic price make sure you run to this open house and check it out before it is too late!

Key facts

• Sizable backyard
• Luxury flooring
• Upgraded counters

Tags

• LUXURY FLOORING
• OPEN LAYOUT
• UPGRADED COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SIZABLE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association with monthly fee of $84; Association offers other community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: 220-volt electric; Public water; Public sewer; Public district irrigation
• Home design: Single family detached residence; 2-story home; Built in 2016
• Construction: Cement and tile roof
• Exterior features: Curb(s)/gutter(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Main level includes living room and full bath (room-level details listed for main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Bathrooms feature shower stalls and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Great room living area; Dining/family room combo; Breakfast area in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups inside home (inside room/area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $569k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (50.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (42.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (50.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 402 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($560k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,451 (50.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.19%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $618,672
• List price: $569,000
• Delta: -8.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Bristle Bark Pl	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,238 (0%)	0mo	$560,000	$250	100
5362 Seal Beach Way	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,137 (-4%)	1mo	$598,000	$280	78
2656 Maybrook Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,265 (+1%)	2mo	$640,000	$283	77
141 Caravaggio Cir	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (-2%)	0mo	$530,000	$241	66
9 Captains Gate Pl	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,962 (-12%)	3mo	$514,990	$262	64
4972 Madamin Way	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,131 (-5%)	1mo	$510,000	$239	62
2857 Maybrook Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,363 (+6%)	1mo	$645,600	$273	60
46 Bascom Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,007 (-10%)	1mo	$599,900	$299	55
2512 Mabry Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,363 (+6%)	0mo	$675,000	$286	53
17 Narwal Pl	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,992 (-11%)	3mo	$490,440	$246	51
6 Sea Hawk Pl	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,962 (-12%)	3mo	$545,000	$278	48
3428 Shaker Way	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,917 (-14%)	1mo	$590,905	$308	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $170,934
• Equity at exit: $479,107

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $567,937
• Equity at exit: $999,532

Cash invested: $159,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,278 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,984
• Tax from tax record: −$770 /mo · $9,241/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$84
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-1,611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,317

Max offer price $284,451

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,250
• Closing costs: $17,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	3d	1	0.33mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	1d	1	0.38mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	43d	2	0.40mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	3d	1	0.43mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	7d	1	0.47mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	43d	1	0.56mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	43d	1	0.59mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	10d	1	0.66mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	3d	1	0.67mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	12d	1	0.69mi
5663 Lolet Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2630	$3,295	$1.25	1d	1	0.70mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	1d	1	0.76mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	1d	26	0.81mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	3d	1	0.83mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	43d	1	0.86mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	43d	1	0.90mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	1d	1	0.91mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	17d	3	0.92mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	21d	2	0.92mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	43d	1	0.99mi
271 Vista Cove Cir Sacramento, CA	5.0	3.0	2900	$3,595	$1.24	4d	1	0.99mi
2157 Promise Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2493	$2,995	$1.20	1d	1	1.13mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,950	$1.60	1d	1	1.20mi
4441 Rhone Walk Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2298	$2,950	$1.28	43d	1	1.26mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	23d	1	1.27mi
2957 Valbonne Walk Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2298	$2,950	$1.28	4d	1	1.28mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	43d	1	1.31mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	14d	1	1.31mi
2957 Nimes Ln Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	1920	$2,795	$1.46	43d	1	1.33mi
5342 Liberty Ship Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	4.0	2776	$3,650	$1.31	1d	1	1.33mi
142 Mike Gartrell Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2231	$2,975	$1.33	2d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $84 · $1,008/yr

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,241 · $770/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,241 · $770/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone A99 · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,873
• − Property taxes: −$9,241
• − Insurance: −$4,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,147
• − Management: −$3,147
• − HOA: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$16,553
• Taxable loss: −$29,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $560,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,241 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.