3954 Dewberry Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$329,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1984 2,962 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home with deep water direct gulf access. Wonderful vacation rental or full time residence . Dock with boatlift on wide canal with unobstructed docking of your large boat or sailboat. Property is located on a quiet cul de sac with zero maintenance yard. Large enclosed sun porch offers great view of intersecting canal and mangrove wildlife.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Large great room
• 2,962 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• NEW METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: MH-1; Lot dimensions approx. 55 x 70 x 50 x 85; Waterfront property
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Community boat facilities; Guest suites; RV/boat storage

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached carport (1 space); Driveway; Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Modular/prefab home; Wood siding; Single-story; Entry level 1; North-facing; Has view
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Open patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Gas grill; Seawall; Canal access with navigable intersecting canal; South exposure; Cul-de-sac lot; Irregular lot; Paved public-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Freezer; Microwave; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Furnished; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Separate shower (shower only); Window coverings / treatments; Double-hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $183k; list at $329k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,624 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-80,965
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-105,433
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,775/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,296

Max offer price $251,624

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	23d	1	0.24mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	23d	1	0.26mi
2744 Sanderling Ct Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	841	$5,300	$6.30	23d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $329,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $342,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $342,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $342,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $342,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $342,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $342,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $342,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $342,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-04-17
    listed $342,000 Active
13. 2026-03-30
    historical
14. 2026-02-23
    listed $410,000 Active
15. 2018-06-04
    soldstatus $183,000
16. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus $145,000
17. 2016-04-21
    price $145,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home with deep water direct gulf access. Wonderful vacation rental or full time residence . Dock with boatlift on wide canal with unobstructed docking of your large boat or sailboat. Property is located on a quiet cul de sac with zero maintenance yard. Large enclosed sun porch offers great view of intersecting canal and mangrove wildlife.

18. 2016-04-20
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home with deep water direct gulf access. Wonderful vacation rental or full time residence . Dock with boatlift on wide canal with unobstructed docking of your large boat or sailboat. Property is located on a quiet cul de sac with zero maintenance yard. Large enclosed sun porch offers great view of intersecting canal and mangrove wildlife.

19. 2016-04-17
    price $169,900 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home with deep water direct gulf access. Wonderful vacation rental or full time residence . Dock with boatlift on wide canal with unobstructed docking of your large boat or sailboat. Property is located on a quiet cul de sac with zero maintenance yard. Large enclosed sun porch offers great view of intersecting canal and mangrove wildlife.

20. 2016-03-19
    status Pending 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home with deep water direct gulf access. Wonderful vacation rental or full time residence . Dock with boatlift on wide canal with unobstructed docking of your large boat or sailboat. Property is located on a quiet cul de sac with zero maintenance yard. Large enclosed sun porch offers great view of intersecting canal and mangrove wildlife.

21. 2016-03-12
    price $169,900 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home with deep water direct gulf access. Wonderful vacation rental or full time residence . Dock with boatlift on wide canal with unobstructed docking of your large boat or sailboat. Property is located on a quiet cul de sac with zero maintenance yard. Large enclosed sun porch offers great view of intersecting canal and mangrove wildlife.

22. 2016-02-05
    price $179,900 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home with deep water direct gulf access. Wonderful vacation rental or full time residence . Dock with boatlift on wide canal with unobstructed docking of your large boat or sailboat. Property is located on a quiet cul de sac with zero maintenance yard. Large enclosed sun porch offers great view of intersecting canal and mangrove wildlife.

23. 2015-12-26
    listed $189,900 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home with deep water direct gulf access. Wonderful vacation rental or full time residence . Dock with boatlift on wide canal with unobstructed docking of your large boat or sailboat. Property is located on a quiet cul de sac with zero maintenance yard. Large enclosed sun porch offers great view of intersecting canal and mangrove wildlife.

24. 2006-12-27
    soldstatus $175,000
25. 2006-12-15
    soldstatus $175,000
26. 2006-11-09
    price $199,900
27. 2001-05-31
    soldstatus $85,000
28. 2001-04-11
    soldstatus $73,000
29. 1987-03-25
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,775 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,775 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$3,775
• − Insurance: −$6,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,631
• − Management: −$2,631
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$10,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,618
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+677.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $342,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $410,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-21 Price Changed $145,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-04-20 Sold (MLS) $145,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-04-17 Price Changed $169,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-03-19 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2016-03-12 Price Changed $169,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-02-05 Price Changed $179,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-12-26 Listed $189,900 FORTMLS
• 2006-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-15 Sold (MLS) $175,000 FORTMLS
• 2006-11-09 Price Changed $199,900 FORTMLS
• 2001-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,775 · +27.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.