8831 Morning Glow Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$370,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,357 sqft lot Est $406k · 9% under $129/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to Your Sienna Retreat! Step into this beautiful single-story home designed for comfort and style. Enjoy a spacious kitchen with granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances, a large primary suite with a spa-inspired bath, and an abundance of natural light throughout. The open floor plan features a dedicated office, an inviting foyer, and a versatile study. Relax in the expansive backyard or take advantage of the 2-car garage and the many amenities offered in the desirable Sienna community — including pools, walking trails, and parks. Perfectly located near top-rated Fort Bend ISD schools, shopping, dining, and grocery stores. Experience the ideal blend of luxury

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Primary suite
• Natural light

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA INSPIRED BATH
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (SPCAI) with annual fee of $1,543; Community features include golf

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level on the first floor
• Construction: Built in 2021; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Near golf course; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (19 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor (three bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Office on the first floor; Family room on the first floor; Total of 8 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $370k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $370k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $370,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.40%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $405,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1610 Country Air Ln	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,388 (0%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	96
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-0%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	85
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5	2,413 (+1%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	83
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,517 (+5%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	74
1743 Country Air Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-4%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	74
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,591 (+8%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	67
1706 Country Air Ln	0.09mi	4/3.5	2,700 (+13%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	67
2119 Long Spring Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,522 (+6%)	8mo	$410,989	$163	58
1306 Shaded Rock Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,046 (-14%)	2mo	$365,915	$179	52
2023 Green Haven Ct	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,623 (+10%)	8mo	$450,000	$172	50
8703 Red Heron Ln	0.66mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,615 (+10%)	8mo	$459,000	$176	40
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.64mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,033 (-15%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-27,668
• Equity at exit: $77,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-23,932
• Equity at exit: $71,876

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$1,035 /mo · $12,422/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,125

Max offer price $370,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	21d	1	0.38mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.61mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	0.64mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	10d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $370,000 Active
2. 2026-04-30
   historical
3. 2026-04-10
   price $364,900
4. 2026-04-01
   price $369,000
5. 2026-01-15
   listed $380,000 Active
6. 2026-01-14
   historical
7. 2025-10-30
   listed $395,000 Active
8. 2025-10-29
   historical
9. 2025-07-12
   listed $395,000 Active
10. 2025-07-12
    historical
11. 2025-05-10
    listed $408,000 Active
12. 2025-05-05
    historical
13. 2022-02-10
    soldstatus
14. 2022-01-31
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2021-10-08
    status Pending
16. 2021-08-27
    listed $396,690 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,422 · $1,035/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,422 · $1,035/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$12,422
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,422
• − Management: −$4,422
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $4,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Sienna is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $370,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $364,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $369,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $380,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-10 Listed $408,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-05 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2022-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-10-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-08-27 Listed $396,690 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,422 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.