20235 San Juan Dr · Detroit, MI 48221

$107,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1922 9,583 sqft lot Est $159k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home! This spacious residence boasts a huge backyard and an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living room, and dining area. Located near the vibrant intersection of 8 Mile and Livernois, you'll enjoy easy access to shops, dining, and entertainment. Step inside to discover a beautifully renovated kitchen and bathroom, complete with modern finishes and appliances. The home features numerous upgrades, making it truly move-in ready. Recent improvements include a new porch, elegant hardwood floors, and cozy carpeting upstairs. You'll also appreciate the brand-new plumbing and sewer line, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With so many recent updates, this home is a must-see! Don't miss the opportunity to experience this wonderful home for yourself!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New plumbing
• Huge backyard

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 8817% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,790 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.33%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20145 Santa Barbara Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+8%)	5mo	$35,000	$32	77
1368 Northway St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,017 (-0%)	0mo	$264,900	$260	77
20501 Northlawn St	0.38mi	3/1.0	992 (-3%)	3mo	$90,000	$91	75
20038 Santa Rosa Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	927 (-9%)	3mo	$103,000	$111	70
20110 Northlawn St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+8%)	3mo	$67,000	$61	68
20805 Bethlawn Blvd	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,083 (+6%)	3mo	$168,500	$156	65
515 Farmdale St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-2%)	3mo	$265,000	$265	64
19940 Prairie St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,165 (+14%)	2mo	$140,000	$120	62
20018 Wyoming Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,043 (+2%)	4mo	$66,500	$64	60
641 Stratford Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+8%)	0mo	$220,000	$200	54
20457 Gardendale St	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,146 (+12%)	3mo	$293,000	$256	48
931 Emwill St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-12%)	1mo	$285,000	$317	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $17,255
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $61,505
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,544 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $980/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $593	-5% $563	+0% $533	+5% $502	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $472	+0% $533	+5% $594	+10% $654
Rate	-1.0pp $586	-0.5pp $560	base $533	+0.5pp $505	+1.0pp $477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20038 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	927	$1,300	$1.40	18d	1	0.26mi
20045 Greenlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	925	$1,350	$1.46	44d	1	0.27mi
20110 Northlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	18d	1	0.35mi
19986 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1144	$1,700	$1.49	18d	1	0.44mi
510 Stratford Rd Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	965	$1,750	$1.81	44d	1	0.51mi
578 Kensington Ave Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	5d	1	0.54mi
631 Shasta Pl Ferndale, MI	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,100	$1.59	44d	1	0.55mi
20009 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1051	$1,400	$1.33	18d	1	0.56mi
20458 Indiana St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1049	$1,300	$1.24	18d	1	0.57mi
20129 Stratford Rd Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,223	$1.11	25d	1	0.58mi
20185 Indiana St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,275	$1.16	44d	1	0.59mi
20643 Stratford Rd Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.61mi
20445 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1046	$1,200	$1.15	25d	1	0.65mi
695 Livernois St Unit 2 Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	950	$2,350	$2.47	5d	1	0.67mi
695 Livernois St Unit 1 Ferndale, MI	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,750	$1.83	13d	1	0.67mi
20515 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	891	$1,450	$1.63	44d	1	0.82mi
20460 Griggs St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	910	$1,100	$1.21	18d	1	0.84mi
851 Gardendale St Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	933	$1,625	$1.74	25d	1	0.85mi
19031 Livernois Unit F Detroit, MI	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,135	$1.94	44d	1	0.88mi
353 W Webster St Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,525	$1.69	17d	1	0.96mi
21374 Ithaca Ave Ferndale, MI	3.0	1.0	996	$1,775	$1.78	25d	1	0.96mi
1557 Leroy St Ferndale, MI	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,523	$1.83	5d	1	0.97mi
901 Saint Louis St Unit 901-02 Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	25d	1	1.03mi
901 Saint Louis St Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	44d	1	1.03mi
18935 Indiana St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,523	$1.22	5d	1	1.05mi
20032 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,294	$1.29	21d	1	1.07mi
20429 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	872	$1,300	$1.49	18d	1	1.09mi
226 Fielding St Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	25d	1	1.09mi
224 Fielding St Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.10mi
19929 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	860	$1,450	$1.69	18d	1	1.11mi
20122 Manor St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1028	$1,200	$1.17	44d	1	1.12mi
20245 Manor Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,400	$1.38	3d	1	1.14mi
22111 Woodward Ave Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	816	$3,355	$4.11	17d	1	1.19mi
1491 W Nine Mile Rd Unit 9 Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	44d	1	1.21mi
1260 W Nine Mile Rd Unit 13 Ferndale, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,399	$1.40	15d	1	1.21mi
430 W 9 Mile Rd Ferndale, MI	1.0–2.0	2.0	826	$2,827	$3.42	0d	2	1.29mi
22811 Rosewood St Oak Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	25d	1	1.30mi
10020 Corning St Oak Park, MI	2.0	1.0	829	$1,400	$1.69	25d	1	1.36mi
10000 W Nine Mile Rd Unit 3 Oak Park, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.41mi
10050 W Nine Mile Rd Unit 18 Oak Park, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	5d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2025-12-21
   historical $1,150
2. 2025-11-01
   price $1,150
3. 2025-10-21
   listed $1,200
4. 2025-10-21
   historical $1,200
5. 2025-10-16
   listed $1,200
6. 2025-10-16
   historical $1,200
7. 2025-10-15
   listed $1,200
8. 2025-04-23
   status Pending
9. 2025-04-09
   historical
10. 2025-03-21
    soldstatus $95,000
11. 2025-01-30
    status Pending 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! This spacious residence boasts a huge backyard and an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living room, and dining area. Located near the vibrant intersection of 8 Mile and Livernois, you'll enjoy easy access to shops, dining, and entertainment. Step inside to discover a beautifully renovated kitchen and bathroom, complete with modern finishes and appliances. The home features numerous upgrades, making it truly move-in ready. Recent improvements include a new porch, elegant hardwood floors, and cozy carpeting upstairs. You'll also appreciate the brand-new plumbing and sewer line, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With so many recent updates, this home is a must-see! Don't miss the opportunity to experience this wonderful home for yourself!

12. 2025-01-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! This spacious residence boasts a huge backyard and an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living room, and dining area. Located near the vibrant intersection of 8 Mile and Livernois, you'll enjoy easy access to shops, dining, and entertainment. Step inside to discover a beautifully renovated kitchen and bathroom, complete with modern finishes and appliances. The home features numerous upgrades, making it truly move-in ready. Recent improvements include a new porch, elegant hardwood floors, and cozy carpeting upstairs. You'll also appreciate the brand-new plumbing and sewer line, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With so many recent updates, this home is a must-see! Don't miss the opportunity to experience this wonderful home for yourself!

13. 2024-12-06
    listed $107,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! This spacious residence boasts a huge backyard and an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living room, and dining area. Located near the vibrant intersection of 8 Mile and Livernois, you'll enjoy easy access to shops, dining, and entertainment. Step inside to discover a beautifully renovated kitchen and bathroom, complete with modern finishes and appliances. The home features numerous upgrades, making it truly move-in ready. Recent improvements include a new porch, elegant hardwood floors, and cozy carpeting upstairs. You'll also appreciate the brand-new plumbing and sewer line, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With so many recent updates, this home is a must-see! Don't miss the opportunity to experience this wonderful home for yourself!

14. 2024-12-06
    listed $107,000 Active 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! This spacious residence boasts a huge backyard and an inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living room, and dining area. Located near the vibrant intersection of 8 Mile and Livernois, you'll enjoy easy access to shops, dining, and entertainment. Step inside to discover a beautifully renovated kitchen and bathroom, complete with modern finishes and appliances. The home features numerous upgrades, making it truly move-in ready. Recent improvements include a new porch, elegant hardwood floors, and cozy carpeting upstairs. You'll also appreciate the brand-new plumbing and sewer line, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. With so many recent updates, this home is a must-see! Don't miss the opportunity to experience this wonderful home for yourself!

15. 2024-07-12
    historical
16. 2024-07-12
    historical
17. 2024-05-31
    listed $114,900 Active
18. 2024-05-31
    listed $114,900 Active
19. 2024-04-13
    historical
20. 2024-04-13
    historical
21. 2023-10-13
    listed $129,900 Active
22. 2023-10-13
    listed $129,900 Active
23. 2023-10-11
    historical
24. 2023-10-11
    historical
25. 2011-07-27
    soldstatus $5,400
26. 2011-07-27
    soldstatus $5,400
27. 2011-07-14
    historical
28. 2011-05-31
    listed $5,600
29. 2011-05-31
    listed $5,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$334/yr (+$28/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$980
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,482
• − Management: −$1,482
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $4,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,186
• After-tax cash flow: $5,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-79.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,150 SWMMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $1,150 SWMMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed for Rent $1,200 SWMMLS
• 2025-10-21 Rental Removed $1,200 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-10-16 Listed for Rent $1,200 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-10-16 Rental Removed $1,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-10-15 Listed for Rent $1,200 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-12-06 Listed $107,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $107,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-07-12 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-31 Listed $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listed $114,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-04-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-13 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-13 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-11 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-11 Coming Soon — REALCOMP
• 2011-07-27 Sold (MLS) $5,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-07-27 Sold (MLS) $5,400 REALCOMP
• 2011-07-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-05-31 Listed $5,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-05-31 Listed $5,600 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $980 · -78.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.