1939 Rockcastle Rd · Cadiz, KY 42211

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1977 0.51 ac lot $169/sqft · at area comps Est $185k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake Barkley Gem! This updated 3-bed, 1-bath home is perfectly positioned just 1 mile from Moon River Marina & Resort on Lake Barkley and only 3 miles from downtown Cadiz, KY. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat at the lake, or a short-term rental investment, this property delivers. Sitting on a spacious half-acre lot, major recent updates include new flooring (2023), new HVAC (2022), new gutters with leaf guard (2024), new water heater (2020), and a brand new front deck (2025). A durable metal roof adds long-term value and peace of mind. Out back, enjoy a deck overlooking a private tree-lined yard with a fenced area perfect for pets. A 14x20 double-loft outb

Key facts

• Metal roof
• New hvac
• New flooring

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW HVAC
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEW WATER HEATER
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,016 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.79%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,482
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -0.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,125
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,876
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $184,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $184,900 832-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $189,900 Active 832-char remark
18. 2025-08-11
    price $189,900
19. 2025-08-06
    price $194,900
20. 2025-07-22
    listed $199,900 Active
21. 2025-05-29
    soldstatus $168,000
22. 2025-05-23
    soldstatus $168,000 Closed
23. 2025-02-18
    price $179,900
24. 2025-01-03
    price $185,000
25. 2024-12-16
    listed $194,000 Active
26. 2022-08-29
    soldstatus $82,500
27. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus $82,500
28. 2022-08-25
    soldstatus $82,500
29. 2022-06-03
    listed $89,900
30. 2022-06-03
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,590 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$842/yr (+$70/mo · 112.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$70
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+105.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $184,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $189,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $189,900 GORAMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $194,900 GORAMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $199,900 GORAMLS
• 2025-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $168,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-23 Sold (MLS) $168,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $179,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $185,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-12-16 Listed $194,000 WKRMLS
• 2022-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 2022-08-25 Sold (MLS) $82,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-25 Sold (MLS) $82,500 WKRMLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $89,900 WKRMLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $89,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+25.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $749 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.