Southlake-3bd-2ba Plan · Fremont, CA 94538

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 657 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is the perfect starter home featuring a modern, open floorplan with high ceilings and recessed lighting. A smartly designed kitchen gives you more space to make great family meals. New appliances, beautiful cabinets and a large island await.

Key facts

• Large island
• Listed 657 days

Tags

• MODERN OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SMARTLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $399,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($147k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 657 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 657 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.54%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,000
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: 44.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Fisk Ter	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	4mo	$225,000	$156	87
88 Delta Grn	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+5%)	2mo	$320,000	$203	86
34 Eagle Grn #34	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+4%)	2mo	$276,000	$177	78
58 Delta Ter	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	7mo	$238,000	$165	76
35 Eagle Grn	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	5mo	$230,000	$160	76
262 Manitoba Grn #262	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	5mo	$300,000	$208	75
319 Winnipeg Grn	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+2%)	4mo	$270,000	$176	73
117 Fisk Ter #117	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,647 (+10%)	9mo	$330,000	$200	70
307 Winnipeg Grn	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+4%)	8mo	$350,000	$224	68
328 Winnipeg Grn	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	10mo	$245,000	$170	67
48 Eagle Grn	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-10%)	6mo	$160,000	$119	64
275 Winnipeg Ter	0.25mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,536 (+2%)	15mo	$275,000	$179	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $45,075
• Equity at exit: $41,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $159,005
• Equity at exit: $23,863

Cash invested: $77,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94538

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$345 /mo · $4,140/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$876
• Net cashflow: $1,387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,414

Max offer price $276,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,578	-5% $1,482	+0% $1,387	+5% $1,292	+10% $1,196
Rent	-10% $1,058	-5% $1,222	+0% $1,387	+5% $1,552	+10% $1,717
Rate	-1.0pp $1,526	-0.5pp $1,457	base $1,387	+0.5pp $1,316	+1.0pp $1,243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,000
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4530 Doane St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$3,950	$3.66	44d	1	0.13mi
4022 Papillon Ter Fremont, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1297	$4,399	$3.39	2d	4	0.37mi
42838 Homewood St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1180	$4,000	$3.39	44d	1	0.56mi
42854 Parkwood St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,295	$3.07	5d	1	0.57mi
4788 Valpey Park Ct Fremont, CA	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,500	$1.49	44d	1	0.68mi
42645 Newport Dr Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1151	$4,400	$3.82	25d	1	0.79mi
42645 Newport Dr Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1151	$4,400	$3.82	44d	1	0.79mi
42740 Jefferson St Fremont, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$4,720	$3.15	4d	1	0.87mi
3675 Broadcast Cmn Fremont, CA	4.0	3.5	2086	$5,100	$2.44	44d	1	0.88mi
41903 Cerchio Ter #1574 Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1425	$4,160	$2.92	17d	1	0.90mi
44862 S Grimmer Blvd Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1978	$4,800	$2.43	5d	1	0.94mi
44762 Old Warm Springs Blvd Fremont, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,150	$5.37	2d	20	0.99mi
42111 Osgood Rd #401 Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1052	$3,875	$3.68	44d	1	1.14mi
3301 Innovation Way Fremont, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$5,025	$5.22	2d	16	1.15mi
45147 Lopes Rd Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$4,551	$4.95	2d	14	1.22mi
40622 Blacow Rd Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1148	$3,500	$3.05	25d	1	1.31mi
41240 Roberts Ave Fremont, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1267	$4,183	$3.30	2d	4	1.34mi
45128 Warm Springs Blvd #330 Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1295	$3,980	$3.07	25d	1	1.39mi
5443 Andromeda Cir Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1422	$3,800	$2.67	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 657 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 656 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 655 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 654 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 652 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 651 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 648 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 647 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 646 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,900 Active 643 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 642 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 641 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 640 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 639 DOM
15. 2024-08-30
    listed $399,900 Active 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is the perfect starter home featuring a modern, open floorplan with high ceilings and recessed lighting. A smartly designed kitchen gives you more space to make great family meals. New appliances, beautiful cabinets and a large island await.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$4,140
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,003
• − Management: −$4,003
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable income: $13,027
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,126
• After-tax cash flow: $13,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior siding, and interior, significantly impacting its value. Immediate action is needed to address these critical issues.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage visible
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and damaged
• Major interior walls and paint — No photos, but condition suggests significant wear
• Major HVAC/mechanical systems — No photos, but condition suggests significant wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace roof — Critical to safety and appearance
• Both repair and replace exterior siding — Improves appearance and structural integrity
• Both paint interior and exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and paint · No photos, but condition suggests significant wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanical systems · No photos, but condition suggests significant wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace roof — Critical to safety and appearance ↑
• Both repair and replace exterior siding — Improves appearance and structural integrity ↑
• Both paint interior and exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,781
• Household income: $147,301
• Rent vs Own: 55.3% rent · 44.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2445.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 56% Hispanic / Latino 20% White 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 50% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Other Indo-European 21% Spanish 14% Chinese 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1249.13%
• Current HPI: 399.7533
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.33%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-08-30 Listed $399,900 Zillow