2165 Red Kill Rd · Fleischmanns, NY 12406

$335,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition 62 ac lot $358/sqft · at area comps Est $351k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Golden opportunity in Fleischmanns! Two-bedroom raised ranch on 62+ acres waiting for its soulmate.   Mid-century modern appeal with a ton of potential.   Highlights include some very nicely situated stone work in front of the house, which appears to include bluestone.   Beautifully maintained parquet flooring throughout most of the living space exudes a warm feeling right away.   Spacious kitchen, and a classic 70s full bath in good shape with what looks to be the original fixtures. The breezy uncovered porch on the side of the house that faces the pond, the covered deck on three sides, the pizza oven in the back, plus a root cellar to store all the veggies that you harvest from your garden will make you realize that this home is all about enjoying the country air! Full, walk-out basement has a half bath, a wood stove and a garage door, and could become the perfect studio.  Generous-sized shed could hold your car.   Plentiful mountain views to be had with some selective tree trimming.  The best part is all the land you have to explore!  The property gently slopes up with level spots here and there, and is not especially dense with trees closer to the house. All this on a town-maintained road close to skiing, paddling, shopping, restaurants, live music; all things Catskills!  There is a lot more to discover on this very special property, and some work to do to bring it back.   It needs love and attention, and is AS IS.   Are you its soulmate? If so, your Catskill Dream awaits!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Pizza oven
• Parquet flooring

Tags

• 62 ACRES
• STONE WORK
• PARQUET FLOORING
• BREEZY UNCOVERED PORCH
• COVERED DECK
• PIZZA OVEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $336k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#834 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Margaretville Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #734 of 755 in NY (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $270,741 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,635
• List price: $335,500
• Delta: -4.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-12,899
• Equity at exit: $106,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $27,825
• Equity at exit: $135,039

Cash invested: $93,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12406

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,759
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,032/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,935

Max offer price $309,495

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $-64	+0% $-180	+5% $-296	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-287	+0% $-180	+5% $-73	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-94	base $-180	+0.5pp $-267	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,875
• Closing costs: $10,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1602 chars)

   Golden opportunity in Fleischmanns! Two-bedroom raised ranch on 62+ acres waiting for its soulmate.   Mid-century modern appeal with a ton of potential.   Highlights include some very nicely situated stone work in front of the house, which appears to include bluestone.   Beautifully maintained parquet flooring throughout most of the living space exudes a warm feeling right away.   Spacious kitchen, and a classic 70s full bath in good shape with what looks to be the original fixtures. The breezy uncovered porch on the side of the house that faces the pond, the covered deck on three sides, the pizza oven in the back, plus a root cellar to store all the veggies that you harvest from your garden will make you realize that this home is all about enjoying the country air! Full, walk-out basement has a half bath, a wood stove and a garage door, and could become the perfect studio.  Generous-sized shed could hold your car.   Plentiful mountain views to be had with some selective tree trimming.  The best part is all the land you have to explore!  The property gently slopes up with level spots here and there, and is not especially dense with trees closer to the house. All this on a town-maintained road close to skiing, paddling, shopping, restaurants, live music; all things Catskills!  There is a lot more to discover on this very special property, and some work to do to bring it back.   It needs love and attention, and is AS IS.   Are you its soulmate? If so, your Catskill Dream awaits!

2. 2026-01-21
   listed $335,500 Active 1602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1602 chars)

   Golden opportunity in Fleischmanns! Two-bedroom raised ranch on 62+ acres waiting for its soulmate.   Mid-century modern appeal with a ton of potential.   Highlights include some very nicely situated stone work in front of the house, which appears to include bluestone.   Beautifully maintained parquet flooring throughout most of the living space exudes a warm feeling right away.   Spacious kitchen, and a classic 70s full bath in good shape with what looks to be the original fixtures. The breezy uncovered porch on the side of the house that faces the pond, the covered deck on three sides, the pizza oven in the back, plus a root cellar to store all the veggies that you harvest from your garden will make you realize that this home is all about enjoying the country air! Full, walk-out basement has a half bath, a wood stove and a garage door, and could become the perfect studio.  Generous-sized shed could hold your car.   Plentiful mountain views to be had with some selective tree trimming.  The best part is all the land you have to explore!  The property gently slopes up with level spots here and there, and is not especially dense with trees closer to the house. All this on a town-maintained road close to skiing, paddling, shopping, restaurants, live music; all things Catskills!  There is a lot more to discover on this very special property, and some work to do to bring it back.   It needs love and attention, and is AS IS.   Are you its soulmate? If so, your Catskill Dream awaits!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 3 d/yr ≥86°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,793
• − Property taxes: −$5,032
• − Insurance: −$1,678
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − Depreciation: −$9,760
• Taxable loss: −$7,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,913
• After-tax cash flow: $-243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mid-century modern home requires significant repairs and maintenance to restore its structural integrity and appearance, but presents a golden opportunity for renovation with high potential for resale.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed kitchen framing — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Missing kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic and functional deficit
• Major Exposed roof rafters — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Missing roof shingles — Weather protection compromised
• Major Weathered siding — Aesthetic and weather protection compromised
• Major Missing window coverings — Aesthetic and security compromised
• Major Exposed HVAC ductwork — Aesthetic and functionality compromised

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances appearance and value
• Resale Replace missing kitchen cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Repair roof — Restores structural integrity and appearance
• Resale Replace missing shingles — Restores weather protection and appearance
• Resale Repair siding — Restores aesthetic and weather protection
• Resale Install window coverings — Enhances security and appearance
• Resale Cover HVAC ductwork — Restores aesthetic and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed kitchen framing · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic and functional deficit	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed roof rafters · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing roof shingles · Weather protection compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Weathered siding · Aesthetic and weather protection compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing window coverings · Aesthetic and security compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed HVAC ductwork · Aesthetic and functionality compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances appearance and value ↑
• Resale Replace missing kitchen cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Repair roof — Restores structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Resale Replace missing shingles — Restores weather protection and appearance ↑
• Resale Repair siding — Restores aesthetic and weather protection ↑
• Resale Install window coverings — Enhances security and appearance ↑
• Resale Cover HVAC ductwork — Restores aesthetic and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Margaretville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618510
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,369
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #12675
• State rank: #734 of 755 in NY

Livability — Fleischmanns

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #834
• US rank: #16163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 609

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 37% Native American 37%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Current HPI: 322.7938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $335,500 UNYREIS