515 Phoenix Avenue Ave · Southport, NY 14904

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1946

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute and tidy 2 bedroom in a great Southport neighborhood-Large fenced yard-new carpet-bathroom is 100% NEW right down to drywall-great opportunity for a starter home or investment property. New windows and front porch, vinyl siding and all appliances-Move right in.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Modern kitchen
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• MODERN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE SPA-LIKE BATHROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR UPDATED BEDROOM
• OPEN LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and workshop; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2-story existing home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; PEX plumbing; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-297/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#690 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ernie Davis Academy (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #691 of 729 statewide, top 95%, 802 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $135k implies a 328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $111,429 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-23,434
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-22,433
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $130,533

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $13	+0% $-25	+5% $-63	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-69	+0% $-25	+5% $19	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $10	base $-25	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $134,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $134,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    remarks 673-char remark
16. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $134,900 Active 1 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,999 Active 8 DOM
20. 2026-05-23
    listed $139,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Cute and tidy 2 bedroom in a great Southport neighborhood-Large fenced yard-new carpet-bathroom is 100% NEW right down to drywall-great opportunity for a starter home or investment property. New windows and front porch, vinyl siding and all appliances-Move right in.

21. 2025-10-03
    historical
22. 2025-09-16
    status Pending
23. 2025-09-07
    listed $119,000 Active
24. 2012-01-12
    soldstatus $31,500 266-char remark
25. 2012-01-12
    soldstatus $31,500
26. 2011-10-06
    listed $39,000 266-char remark
27. 2010-07-11
    historical
28. 2009-07-09
    listed $39,000
29. 2000-01-10
    soldstatus $23,970

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$292/yr (+$24/mo · 17.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,070
• − Management: −$1,070
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$2,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$629
• After-tax cash flow: $332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southport

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #13026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southport, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+462.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $134,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $139,999 FSBO.com
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-07 Listed $119,000 UNYREIS
• 2012-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 2012-01-12 Sold (MLS) $31,500 UNYREIS
• 2011-10-06 Listed $39,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-07-11 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2009-07-09 Listed $39,000 UNYREIS
• 2000-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $23,970 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,696 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.