42 Lake Forest Estate Rd · Tumbling Shoals, AR 72581

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1983 0.63 ac lot Est $100k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Just one mile from the boat ramp at Greers Ferry Lake in Tumbling Shoals, this property offers the kind of setting buyers look for when they want a true lake-area retreat with room to breathe. Situated on approximately . 63 acres, the layout is practical and welcoming. From the enclosed front porch, you enter the living room, with the kitchen and dining combo positioned to the left. A bonus room off the kitchen provides flexible use, while the primary suite is located beyond the kitchen with a convenient laundry closet in between. To the right of the entry are the guest bathroom and second bedroom. The back door opens to a large covered deck overlooking the backyard—ideal for relaxing

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Lake area retreat
• New flooring

Tags

• BOAT RAMP
• LAKE AREA RETREAT
• COVERED DECK
• METAL ROOF REPLACED
• BOAT HOUSE
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($977 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.2% in Tumbling Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#347 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Heber Springs School District (town): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.73%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,792
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 Harrelson Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-11%)	2mo	$125,000	$124	68
390 Heigle Rd	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+13%)	10mo	$45,000	$35	58
199 Wallace Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+10%)	4mo	$110,000	$88	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $63,603
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.29×
• Total profit: $173,578
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72581

• Home prices YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $215/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $632

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $85,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $215 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 153.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$215
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$937
• − Management: −$937
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,970
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$473
• After-tax cash flow: $2,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507560
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $39,577
• Composite: 41.39/100
• National rank: #3478
• State rank: #19 of 238 in AR

Livability — Tumbling Shoals

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #21842

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumbling Shoals, AR
• City population: 821
• Population (ZIP): 821

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,198 people
• By 2030: 23,324 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 21,566 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 19,916 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 16,744 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 13,303 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Native American 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.2% · R 83.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.00%
• Current HPI: 242.3802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $85,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $215 · -31.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.