16 Buckshot Dr · Ward, AR 72176

$209,475

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 2026 6,969 sqft lot Est $216k · at est. ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The gorgeous Washington plan is loaded with curb appeal with its charming covered front porch, brick columns, and arch-top windows. This home features a split floor plan with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an inviting entryway, a spacious master suite, and a stunning kitchen/dining area fully equipped with energy-efficient appliances, ample counter space, and a convenient pantry. Learn more about this home today! * * SEE SHOWING REMARKS & AGENT REMARKS FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION * *

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Arch-top windows
• Split floor plan

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BRICK COLUMNS
• ARCH-TOP WINDOWS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• INVITING ENTRYWAY
• SPACIOUS MASTER SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: VA, FHA, Conventional, or Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric service (Entergy)
• Home design: New construction; Located in Deerfield Estates, Ward, Lonoke County
• Construction: Brick and frame combination exterior with metal/vinyl siding; Composition roof with 3-tab shingles; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar Homes of Arkansas
• Exterior features: Level lot in a subdivision; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $155,179 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,412
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Buckshot Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,652 (0%)	1mo	$208,475	$126	99
16 Ruger Cv	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,652 (0%)	3mo	$211,830	$128	96
54 Ten Point Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,670 (+1%)	2mo	$261,000	$156	94
12 Ruger Cv	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,613 (-2%)	4mo	$207,700	$129	92
21 Buckshot Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,633 (-1%)	3mo	$207,550	$127	88
10 Ruger Cv	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,523 (-8%)	3mo	$201,225	$132	79
17 Ten Point Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,470 (-11%)	0mo	$192,425	$131	74
11 Ten Point Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,470 (-11%)	1mo	$193,000	$131	74
16 Doe Run Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,468 (-11%)	2mo	$244,999	$167	72
30 Doe Run Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,505 (-9%)	2mo	$193,000	$128	68
24 Whitetail	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,473 (-11%)	3mo	$225,000	$153	68
16 Whitetail Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-13%)	2mo	$230,000	$161	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $38,448
• Equity at exit: $123,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $126,612
• Equity at exit: $216,552

Cash invested: $58,653 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,142/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,832

Max offer price $177,392

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-149	+0% $-222	+5% $-294	+10% $-366
Rent	-10% $-344	-5% $-283	+0% $-222	+5% $-160	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-168	base $-222	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,369
• Closing costs: $6,284
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,450	$1.20	25d	1	0.65mi
29 Green Apple Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	21d	1	0.69mi
33 Langford St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,300	$1.11	25d	1	0.77mi
21 Windsor Park Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,500	$1.04	25d	1	0.80mi
14 Stephens St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	45d	1	0.93mi
21 Weatherwood Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	25d	1	0.98mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.99mi
12 Gold Meadows Loop Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	1.07mi
21 Lariat Dr Austin, AR	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,650	$1.11	16d	1	1.18mi
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	1.18mi
404 Scott St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,195	$1.00	21d	1	1.26mi
561 Brewer St Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	46d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-03
   price $209,475
3. 2026-03-18
   price $210,475
4. 2026-01-21
   listed $212,475 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,734
• − Property taxes: −$3,142
• − Insurance: −$1,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$6,094
• Taxable loss: −$6,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,530
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ward, AR
• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $209,475 CARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $210,475 CARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $212,475 CARMLS