343 W Essex Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$68,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1959 6,970 sqft lot $68/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss the opportunity to transform this charmer! Check out that chandelier. No way to know if it is original, but I hope you keep it. The kitchen counters do not look original but those metal cabinets sure do! Great bones too with block construction. Lots of options with the Tuff Shed which looks to have housed critters. All flooring recently removed and ready for finishing touch. New flooring and paint go a long way here!

Key facts

• Tuff shed
• Chandelier
• Metal cabinets

Tags

• CHANDELIER
• METAL CABINETS
• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• TUFF SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($476 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $69k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,699 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.04%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,106
• List price: $68,900
• Delta: -54.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
326 W Greenwich Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0	989 (-2%)	2mo	$86,000	$87	87
313 W Essex Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,014 (0%)	19mo	$162,000	$160	75
402 W Greenwich Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0	961 (-5%)	15mo	$85,000	$88	74
413 W Jamestown Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	900 (-11%)	1mo	$81,500	$91	68
187 W Jamestown Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	4mo	$190,000	$183	63
334 W Essex Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,121 (+11%)	19mo	$97,000	$87	60
333 W Essex Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+10%)	20mo	$169,000	$151	58
610 S York Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+10%)	3mo	$115,000	$103	52
443 W Ivanhoe Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,164 (+15%)	11mo	$165,000	$142	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $89,794
• Equity at exit: $62,071

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 12.58×
• Total profit: $223,336
• Equity at exit: $133,858

Cash invested: $19,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $640/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $561

Max offer price $68,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,225
• Closing costs: $2,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	43d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,900 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,900 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $68,900 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $68,900 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,500 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,500 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,500 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,500 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $72,500 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Don't miss the opportunity to transform this charmer! Check out that chandelier. No way to know if it is original, but I hope you keep it. The kitchen counters do not look original but those metal cabinets sure do! Great bones too with block construction. Lots of options with the Tuff Shed which looks to have housed critters. All flooring recently removed and ready for finishing touch. New flooring and paint go a long way here!

16. 2026-04-06
    price $74,900 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Don't miss the opportunity to transform this charmer! Check out that chandelier. No way to know if it is original, but I hope you keep it. The kitchen counters do not look original but those metal cabinets sure do! Great bones too with block construction. Lots of options with the Tuff Shed which looks to have housed critters. All flooring recently removed and ready for finishing touch. New flooring and paint go a long way here!

17. 2026-02-27
    listed $79,900 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Don't miss the opportunity to transform this charmer! Check out that chandelier. No way to know if it is original, but I hope you keep it. The kitchen counters do not look original but those metal cabinets sure do! Great bones too with block construction. Lots of options with the Tuff Shed which looks to have housed critters. All flooring recently removed and ready for finishing touch. New flooring and paint go a long way here!

18. 2008-12-02
    historical
19. 2008-06-10
    listed $134,500
20. 2003-09-27
    soldstatus $40,000
21. 2003-09-26
    soldstatus $38,000
22. 2003-02-02
    listed $40,000
23. 1983-12-02
    soldstatus $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,859
• − Property taxes: −$640
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$2,004
• Taxable income: $9,279
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,227
• After-tax cash flow: $7,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+98.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $72,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2008-12-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-06-10 Listed $134,500 ARMLS
• 2003-09-27 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MLSSAZ
• 2003-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-02 Listed $40,000 MLSSAZ
• 1983-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $640 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.