1200 W Winton Ave #119 · Hayward, CA 94545

$310,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,207 sqft · Manufactured public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2018 $257/sqft · 41% above area Est $220k · 41% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated home. This property features: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; open living concept with living/dining room and kitchen adjacent to one another. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gourmet island, and lots of storage including primary suite with private bath, large stall shower; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; security door; ceiling fan in the living room; low space rent. Cute side yard with Meyer lemon tree. Perfect pet friendly location within proximity to 880 and 580 freeways. Near Southland Mall, lots of restaurants, Chabot College and new International market place coming soon. Escrow pre-opened with Bay Area Escrow.

Key facts

• Lots of storage
• Open living concept
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN LIVING CONCEPT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GOURMET ISLAND
• LOTS OF STORAGE
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eden Gardens Elementary (481 students, 59% FRL); Anthony W. Ochoa Middle (407 students, 77% FRL); Mt. Eden High (1,947 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $272,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.68%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,082
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: 40.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1150 W Winton Ave #229	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	2mo	$177,000	$155	85
1200 W Winton #145	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,119 (-7%)	6mo	$300,000	$268	79
1200 W Winton Ave #81	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-10%)	0mo	$264,900	$245	79
1200 W Winton Ave #86	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,090 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$257	78
1200 W Winton #49	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	21mo	$280,000	$243	71
1200 W Winton Ave #215	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,308 (+8%)	14mo	$297,500	$227	71
1150 W Winton Ave #221	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+11%)	9mo	$242,000	$180	70
1200 W Winton Ave. #233 #233	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-7%)	21mo	$138,000	$123	68
1200 W Winton Ave #32	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+11%)	16mo	$385,000	$286	65
1150 W Winton #556	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+13%)	14mo	$170,000	$124	61
1150 W Winton Ave #510	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+13%)	22mo	$250,000	$183	56
1200 W Winton Ave #176	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-14%)	16mo	$165,000	$159	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-11,598
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $35,862
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94545

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $889/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,315

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $803	-5% $716	+0% $628	+5% $540	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $382	-5% $505	+0% $628	+5% $751	+10% $874
Rate	-1.0pp $784	-0.5pp $707	base $628	+0.5pp $548	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
946 Hohener Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$3,600	$2.51	16d	1	0.65mi
25000 Copa del Oro Dr #201 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	855	$3,000	$3.51	45d	1	0.72mi
936 Lucia Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,875	$2.13	6d	1	0.79mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22850 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1247	$4,095	$3.28	0d	1	0.86mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22846 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1053	$3,795	$3.60	0d	1	0.86mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22854 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$3,195	$4.27	45d	1	0.86mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22856 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	744	$3,995	$5.37	0d	1	0.86mi
694 Tehama Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	1.5	1136	$3,300	$2.90	0d	1	0.91mi
25800 Industrial Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,893	$3.53	0d	9	0.93mi
21600 Westpark St Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	45d	1	1.00mi
22211 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,145	$2.38	6d	2	1.05mi
1172 Huron Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$5,000	$3.88	23d	1	1.06mi
22230 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	6d	1	1.07mi
1256 Stanhope Ln Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,650	$3.54	45d	1	1.12mi
466 Mackenzie Pl Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1173	$3,900	$3.32	26d	1	1.20mi
22078 Arbor Ave Hayward Acres, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	649	$2,140	$3.29	22d	1	1.27mi
21944 Arbor Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,895	$3.62	45d	1	1.30mi
24650 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$2,788	$3.39	0d	15	1.32mi
24660 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$2,600	$4.16	1d	3	1.34mi
280 Flint Ct Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	4d	1	1.37mi
894 Blaine Way Unit ADU Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,700	$3.18	45d	1	1.41mi
1098 Azalea Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1332	$3,500	$2.63	0d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $310,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $310,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $315,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Beautifully updated home. This property features: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; open living concept with living/dining room and kitchen adjacent to one another. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gourmet island, and lots of storage including primary suite with private bath, large stall shower; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; security door; ceiling fan in the living room; low space rent. Cute side yard with Meyer lemon tree. Perfect pet friendly location within proximity to 880 and 580 freeways. Near Southland Mall, lots of restaurants, Chabot College and new International market place coming soon. Escrow pre-opened with Bay Area Escrow.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $315,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Beautifully updated home. This property features: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; open living concept with living/dining room and kitchen adjacent to one another. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gourmet island, and lots of storage including primary suite with private bath, large stall shower; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; security door; ceiling fan in the living room; low space rent. Cute side yard with Meyer lemon tree. Perfect pet friendly location within proximity to 880 and 580 freeways. Near Southland Mall, lots of restaurants, Chabot College and new International market place coming soon. Escrow pre-opened with Bay Area Escrow.

18. 2026-03-09
    price $325,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Beautifully updated home. This property features: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; open living concept with living/dining room and kitchen adjacent to one another. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gourmet island, and lots of storage including primary suite with private bath, large stall shower; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; security door; ceiling fan in the living room; low space rent. Cute side yard with Meyer lemon tree. Perfect pet friendly location within proximity to 880 and 580 freeways. Near Southland Mall, lots of restaurants, Chabot College and new International market place coming soon. Escrow pre-opened with Bay Area Escrow.

19. 2026-03-09
    price $325,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Beautifully updated home. This property features: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; open living concept with living/dining room and kitchen adjacent to one another. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gourmet island, and lots of storage including primary suite with private bath, large stall shower; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; security door; ceiling fan in the living room; low space rent. Cute side yard with Meyer lemon tree. Perfect pet friendly location within proximity to 880 and 580 freeways. Near Southland Mall, lots of restaurants, Chabot College and new International market place coming soon. Escrow pre-opened with Bay Area Escrow.

20. 2026-01-21
    listed $339,000 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Beautifully updated home. This property features: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; open living concept with living/dining room and kitchen adjacent to one another. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gourmet island, and lots of storage including primary suite with private bath, large stall shower; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; security door; ceiling fan in the living room; low space rent. Cute side yard with Meyer lemon tree. Perfect pet friendly location within proximity to 880 and 580 freeways. Near Southland Mall, lots of restaurants, Chabot College and new International market place coming soon. Escrow pre-opened with Bay Area Escrow.

21. 2026-01-21
    listed $339,000 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Beautifully updated home. This property features: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; open living concept with living/dining room and kitchen adjacent to one another. Kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gourmet island, and lots of storage including primary suite with private bath, large stall shower; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; security door; ceiling fan in the living room; low space rent. Cute side yard with Meyer lemon tree. Perfect pet friendly location within proximity to 880 and 580 freeways. Near Southland Mall, lots of restaurants, Chabot College and new International market place coming soon. Escrow pre-opened with Bay Area Escrow.

22. 2025-12-20
    historical
23. 2025-11-07
    price
24. 2025-10-07
    price
25. 2025-09-17
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,356 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,467/yr (+$122/mo · 165.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$889
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,986
• − Management: −$2,986
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable income: $2,527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$606
• After-tax cash flow: $6,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,843
• Household income: $114,356
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 8% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 14% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -974.17%
• Current HPI: 304.698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $315,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $315,000 MLSListings
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $325,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $325,000 MLSListings
• 2026-01-21 Listed $339,000 MLSListings
• 2026-01-21 Listed $339,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-17 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $889 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.