113 S Winter Cir · Avon Park, FL 33825

$152,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2018 0.25 ac lot Est $107k · 42% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a well-maintained, partly furnished 2018 one-owner mobile home located in The Knoll, a quiet and welcoming 55+ community. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence sits on owned land, no space rent or land lease fees! Enjoy the spacious and light-filled living room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The large eat-in kitchen opens into a cozy family room, creating a warm and functional living space. The primary suite features double vanities, a walk-in shower, and a generous walk-in closet for your convenience. Step outside onto the expansive covered porch, complete with a large hot tub—ideal for unwinding at the end of the day. A detached st

Key facts

• Owned land
• Large hot tub
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• OWNED LAND
• EXPANSIVE COVERED PORCH
• LARGE HOT TUB
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: M1; Lot with paved alley access; approximately 0.25 acres; Frontage about 81 feet
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer not available / Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; No pool; No patio or porch

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Carpet and linoleum flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.9% in Avon Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#407 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,880 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,920
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Century Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-6%)	18mo	$95,000	$62	70
101 S Rally Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,809 (+12%)	7mo	$140,000	$77	70
102 S Rally Rd	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-6%)	14mo	$100,000	$66	67
93 S Rally Rd	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-15%)	2mo	$260,000	$188	65
128 S Winter Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,497 (-8%)	21mo	$198,888	$133	64
37438 Barbara Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-1%)	3mo	$65,000	$41	58
1215 W Hall St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	14mo	$80,000	$51	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,433
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,146
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33825

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,130

Max offer price $152,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
565 Luminary LOOP Avon Park, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1142	$1,140	$1.00	23d	6	1.38mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $152,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $152,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $152,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $152,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    status Active
16. 2026-04-07
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-20
    price $152,000
18. 2026-03-02
    price $154,900
19. 2026-02-20
    price $158,000
20. 2026-02-04
    listed $160,000 Active
21. 2025-09-17
    historical
22. 2025-09-04
    price $129,900
23. 2025-08-29
    price $145,999
24. 2025-08-22
    price $154,900
25. 2025-08-07
    price $159,900
26. 2025-07-25
    price $164,900
27. 2025-06-24
    listed $179,900 Active
28. 2025-06-03
    price $189,000
29. 2025-05-04
    price $195,000
30. 2025-01-20
    price $199,900
31. 2025-01-03
    price $205,000
32. 2024-09-19
    historical
33. 2024-09-12
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $390 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,262 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$871/yr (+$73/mo · 223.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$88
• After-tax cash flow: $2,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Avon Park

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #7205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 98,898 people
• City population: 25,501
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,501
• Household income: $46,949
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.54%
• Current HPI: 281.8067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-07 Pending — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $152,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $154,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $158,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-04 Listed $160,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $145,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $189,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-05-04 Price Changed $195,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $199,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $205,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-09-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-12 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $390 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.