44 Plough Rd · Tioga Terrace, NY 13850

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1979 1.00 ac lot Est $190k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Split entry home in rural Vestal ready for you to make it shine again!! Home sits back from the road on a 1 acre lot. Basement is ready to be finished. Private lot-large back deck.

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Private lot
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• PRIVATE LOT
• LARGE BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Basement access to garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Hardwood floors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vestal Central School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #168 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tioga Hills Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 263 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.27%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,656
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Underwood Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,422 (+13%)	15mo	$215,000	$151	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $20,313
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $67,082
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13850

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,106/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,116

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $659	-5% $628	+0% $597	+5% $566	+10% $535
Rent	-10% $449	-5% $523	+0% $597	+5% $671	+10% $745
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $625	base $597	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $110,000
3. 2026-03-21
   listed $120,000 Active
4. 2025-09-11
   listed $190,000 Active
5. 2008-06-10
   soldstatus $80,000
6. 2003-07-01
   soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,106 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,106 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$3,106
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $5,850
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $5,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vestal Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629610
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,143
• Composite: 56.97/100
• National rank: #1111
• State rank: #168 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tioga Terrace

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,675

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Asian 12% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.14%
• Current HPI: 282.4645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+59.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — GBAOR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $110,000 GBAOR
• 2026-03-21 Listed $120,000 GBAOR
• 2025-09-11 Listed $190,000 GBAOR
• 2008-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,106 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.