3406 Countryside Path · The Villages, FL 32163

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2013 8,181 sqft lot Est $557k · 24% under $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this METICULOUSLY-MAINTAINED 3/2 Designer Lilac perfectly positioned on a quiet eyebrow CUL-DE-SAC in the highly desirable Village of Charlotte! This EXCEPTIONAL home features an OVERSIZED 608sf TWO-CAR + GOLF CART GARAGE, and a PAVER SCREENED LANAI with extended rear PAVER PATIO enhanced by EXTENSIVE HARDSCAPING and LUSH PRIVACY LANDSCAPING - JUST MINUTES to Brownwood Paddock Square with shopping, dining, and live nightly entertainment! TROPICAL landscaping in RICH WOOD CHIP beds and a double side-lit LEADED-GLASS door welcome you into the SPACIOUS foyer with a convenient ENTRY CLOSET. The EX

Key facts

• Paver screened lanai
• Gourmet kitchen
• 8,181 sq ft lot

Tags

• PAVER SCREENED LANAI
• EXTENSIVE HARDSCAPING
• LUSH PRIVACY LANDSCAPING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• EXPANSIVE PAVER PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association amenities include pool and recreational facilities; Total living area approximately 1,956 square feet; total building area approximately 2,833 square feet
• Financial info: CDD (Community Development District) present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community amenities include pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, playground, trails, recreation facilities, dog park, sidewalks; Golf and golf cart friendly community; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Vehicle and fence restrictions may apply; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage; Garage with 32x21 dimensions; Driveway; Garage door opener; Golf cart garage and parking; Ground level; Oversized garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces southeast; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation; Builder model: LILAC
• Exterior features: Patio; Rear porch; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Located on a cul-de-sac; Landscaped yard; Near golf course; Private lot; Paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Tray ceiling; Vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-799 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,837 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.06%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $557,460
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3406 Countryside Path	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,956 (0%)	0mo	$415,000	$212	100
3416 Countryside Path	0.04mi	3/2.0	2,013 (+3%)	3mo	$630,000	$313	91
3258 Sylewood Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,956 (0%)	1mo	$430,000	$220	87
3441 Fieldstone Path	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,907 (-2%)	3mo	$543,000	$285	85
3343 Rabbit Run Path	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,976 (+1%)	2mo	$817,000	$413	77
3556 Mistletoe Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,913 (-2%)	3mo	$610,000	$319	74
595 Yarborough Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,965 (+0%)	2mo	$549,000	$279	72
3102 Raven Croft Ter	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,965 (+0%)	3mo	$500,000	$254	67
3183 Apollo Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,050 (+5%)	2mo	$629,000	$307	66
909 Vanilla Leaf Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,939 (-1%)	1mo	$495,000	$255	65
1016 Pickering Path	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,230 (+14%)	1mo	$675,000	$303	51
1198 Reading Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,168 (+11%)	1mo	$544,000	$251	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $180,711
• Equity at exit: $382,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $572,464
• Equity at exit: $825,682

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,791/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-799

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,914

Max offer price $283,837

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3068 Islawild Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,200	$1.43	21d	1	0.60mi
3314 Abana Path Unit 1525266P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,770	$1.13	21d	1	0.62mi
798 Journey Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,300	$1.48	21d	1	0.75mi
2875 Rain Lily Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1965	$4,490	$2.28	21d	1	0.86mi
3225 Wise Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,650	$1.60	24d	1	1.19mi
3394 Ridgewood Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$4,000	$2.57	21d	1	1.21mi
1109 Alcove Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1970	$3,000	$1.52	21d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   price $425,000
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,791 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,791 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$5,791
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,787
• − Management: −$2,787
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$17,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,145
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,791 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.