4005 19th St NE #510 · Bismarck, ND 58503

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $84k · 31% over $703/mo HOA · 37% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Like new property in Hay Creek Court. This property is located in North Bismarck. This is a 2015 Harmony Home Lennox 76 x 16. You will appreciate the spacious 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The living room dining room and kitchen is very spacious! This property has many upgrades and is ready to move into. The property has beautiful deck, 2 stall garage, natural gas & central air. You have aprox 1216 Square feet of indoor living space! This is affordable living with great outdoor space. This property is on a rented lot. Lot rent is $375 per month which includes the water bill and trash bill. This property is a vinyl exterior. You will appreciate the low maintenance. At a list price of $94,900 this is a great, affordable opportunity! Don't miss your opportunity for a private showing!

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Spacious kitchen
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GAS RANGE
• FUNCTIONAL DINING AREA
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $703; HOA fee includes water, sewer and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Smoke detector(s); Security system
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.

Recommended offer $100,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.68%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,904
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1718 Chandler Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	2mo	$84,900	$69	82
4005 19th St N #514	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	18mo	$85,000	$70	78
4012 North Valley Loop	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	13mo	$99,900	$81	71
4005 N 19th St #411	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	8mo	$31,995	$30	59
4005 19th St N #411	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	12mo	$15,000	$14	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $233
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $57,178
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $586/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$703
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4309 N 19th St Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,955	$1.78	21d	1	0.19mi
3009 43rd Ave NE Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,024	$1.93	21d	22	0.69mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	21d	6	0.81mi
1600 Mapleton Ave Unit 104 Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,600	$1.10	21d	1	0.84mi
4126A Normandy St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	1468	$1,750	$1.19	21d	1	1.26mi
3504 French St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	966	$1,795	$1.86	21d	1	1.36mi
444 E Brandon Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,655	$1.84	21d	1	1.43mi
1834 E Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,770	$1.59	21d	13	1.43mi
1820 E Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,545	$1.47	21d	12	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $703 · $8,436/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgas

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $109,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    price $115,000
19. 2026-03-16
    listed $120,000 Active
20. 2017-05-25
    soldstatus 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Like new property in Hay Creek Court. This property is located in North Bismarck. This is a 2015 Harmony Home Lennox 76 x 16. You will appreciate the spacious 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The living room dining room and kitchen is very spacious! This property has many upgrades and is ready to move into. The property has beautiful deck, 2 stall garage, natural gas & central air. You have aprox 1216 Square feet of indoor living space! This is affordable living with great outdoor space. This property is on a rented lot. Lot rent is $375 per month which includes the water bill and trash bill. This property is a vinyl exterior. You will appreciate the low maintenance. At a list price of $94,900 this is a great, affordable opportunity! Don't miss your opportunity for a private showing!

21. 2016-09-07
    listed $89,900 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Like new property in Hay Creek Court. This property is located in North Bismarck. This is a 2015 Harmony Home Lennox 76 x 16. You will appreciate the spacious 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The living room dining room and kitchen is very spacious! This property has many upgrades and is ready to move into. The property has beautiful deck, 2 stall garage, natural gas & central air. You have aprox 1216 Square feet of indoor living space! This is affordable living with great outdoor space. This property is on a rented lot. Lot rent is $375 per month which includes the water bill and trash bill. This property is a vinyl exterior. You will appreciate the low maintenance. At a list price of $94,900 this is a great, affordable opportunity! Don't miss your opportunity for a private showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $586 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$491/yr (+$41/mo · 83.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$586
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − HOA: −$8,436
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $137
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$33
• After-tax cash flow: $1,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+27.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $115,000 GNMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $120,000 GNMLS
• 2017-05-25 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2016-09-07 Listed $89,900 GNMLS