2233 Deering Ave · Fort McKinley, OH 45406

$114,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1952 5,502 sqft lot Est $124k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom ranch features beautiful hardwood floors and 1,381 sf of living space per PRC. Dining room features bay window and opens to the kitchen. All bedrooms and 1 bath are located on the first floor. Home also features a full unfinished basement and carport.

Key facts

• Fenced in back yard
• Spacious basement
• 5,502 sq ft lot

Tags

• NATURAL WOODEN FLOORS
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• SPACIOUS BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-story home; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Range
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one half bathroom (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $115k implies a 1989% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,176 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,290
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2247 Esmeralda Ave	0.06mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,406 (+2%)	2mo	$68,000	$48	88
2413 Archwood Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,377 (-0%)	0mo	$100,100	$73	77
2019 Fairport Ave	0.24mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,445 (+5%)	10mo	$130,000	$90	68
1870 Kipling Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,376 (-0%)	11mo	$53,570	$39	62
4643 Saint Johns Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,363 (-1%)	11mo	$51,750	$38	62
2208 Kensington Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,399 (+1%)	9mo	$155,000	$111	59
3729 El Paso Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-10%)	9mo	$68,500	$55	47
2512 England Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-14%)	8mo	$142,250	$120	42
2553 Greenbrier Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,218 (-12%)	9mo	$152,000	$125	38
2521 Arlene Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-15%)	4mo	$100,500	$85	37
4131 Merryfield Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,210 (-12%)	6mo	$146,700	$121	35
1730 Wesleyan Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-15%)	10mo	$142,000	$121	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-8,711
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,275
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45406

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,399/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	2d	1	0.24mi
4446 Waymire Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	21d	1	0.40mi
1720 Kings Mill Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	975	$925	$0.95	23d	1	0.59mi
3537 Otterbein Ave Unit d Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	43d	1	0.67mi
4629 Queens Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.68mi
3311 Otterbein Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1004	$1,300	$1.29	11d	1	0.73mi
3650 Otterbein Ave Unit 3650 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	2d	1	0.76mi
2002 Val Vista Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	21d	1	0.79mi
4916 Copeland Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1515	$1,125	$0.74	11d	1	0.80mi
2141 Philadelphia Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1736	$1,395	$0.80	43d	1	0.83mi
3668 Karwin Dr Unit 3672 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$995	$0.66	23d	1	0.87mi
3672 Karwin Dr Unit 3672 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$995	$0.66	43d	1	0.87mi
4246 Redonda Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	43d	1	0.88mi
5112 W Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	972	$700	$0.72	23d	1	0.89mi
3207 Cornell Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,000	$0.86	3d	1	1.05mi
1927 Burroughs Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,245	$0.88	14d	1	1.08mi
1207 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1023	$825	$0.81	43d	1	1.10mi
1207 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1023	$825	$0.81	3d	1	1.10mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	3d	1	1.12mi
3031 Garvin Rd Unit C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1269	$1,150	$0.91	43d	1	1.15mi
2247 Salem Ave Unit 2249 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,400	$1.08	43d	1	1.19mi
2247 Salem Ave Unit 2247 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,350	$1.04	3d	1	1.19mi
2232 Salem Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,200	$0.96	3d	1	1.21mi
1004 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1053	$950	$0.90	23d	1	1.23mi
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	2d	1	1.25mi
1019 Cherry Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1057	$1,125	$1.06	43d	1	1.26mi
3220 Princeton Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	1.29mi
3668 Castano Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,600	$1.00	2d	1	1.39mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	43d	1	1.46mi
2333 Rustic Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$840	$0.84	43d	1	1.47mi
2333 Rustic Rd Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$840	$0.84	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 658-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $114,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$196/yr (+$16/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,399
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,120
• − Management: −$1,120
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $12
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3
• After-tax cash flow: $1,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,991
• Household income: $41,796
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1504.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.75%
• Current HPI: 197.1302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+1847.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $114,900 Dayton MLS
• 2013-06-21 Sold (MLS) $5,500 Dayton MLS
• 2013-06-21 Sold (MLS) $5,500 Dayton MLS
• 2013-05-31 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2013-03-04 Listed $5,900 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,399 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.