525 Carlyene Dr · Midway, GA 31320

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,629 sqft · Other · 132 Days on market

Built 2025 0.61 ac lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This plan offer flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• L shaped kitchen
• Flex room

Tags

• 4TH BEDROOM DOWNSTAIRS
• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• L SHAPED KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#219 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,794 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-41,784
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-28,016
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31320

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $955/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $194	+0% $109	+5% $24	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $15	+0% $109	+5% $204	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $186	base $109	+0.5pp $32	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
491 Lake Rosalind Dr Midway, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,600	$1.79	15d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This plan offer flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

3. 2026-03-14
   status Active 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This plan offer flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

4. 2026-02-27
   status Pending 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This plan offer flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

5. 2026-01-28
   price $299,900 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This plan offer flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

6. 2026-01-27
   price $299,900

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   This plan offers flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

7. 2026-01-27
   price $299,900 438-char remark

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   This plan offers flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

8. 2026-01-20
   price $304,900
9. 2026-01-14
   price $304,900 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   This plan offer flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

10. 2025-10-28
    listed $310,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    This plan offers flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

11. 2025-10-28
    listed $304,900 Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    This plan offers flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

12. 2025-10-13
    price $310,900 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This plan offer flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

13. 2025-06-20
    listed $304,900 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This plan offer flexibility with a 4th bedroom downstairs that could be a flex room, office, playroom or a bedroom. Open floor plan downstairs with the L shaped kitchen and kitchen island- creates the perfect space for large gatherings. Granite countertops and ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Stainless steel appliances in the kitchen with LVP flooring throughout the downstairs and carpet in the bedrooms. Home is move in ready!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,759 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,804/yr (+$150/mo · 189.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$955
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,292
• − Management: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$3,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $2,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Midway

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #12952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 10,794
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 10,794
• Household income: $77,195
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 33% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.67%
• Current HPI: 239.3136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HABR
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — HABR
• 2026-02-27 Pending — HABR
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $299,900 HABR
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $299,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $299,900 GIAR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $304,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $304,900 HABR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $304,900 GIAR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $310,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $310,900 HABR
• 2025-06-20 Listed $304,900 HABR

Property tax history

+48.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $955 · +78.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.