24 Tumbleweed Dr · Kerrville, TX 78028

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1996

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This mobile home sits on a rental lot in the River Bend Estates Mobile Home Park ( formerly known as Three Hills ) . The lot fee is $525 mo. With community hall and pool. This Palm Harbor mobile home is very nice and sits on one of the best lots in the park . MUST SEE to appreciate its elegance and charm . Walk in the door and feel right at HOME! 18ft wide X 66ft long Central heat and air Appliances included -refrigerator-oven-dishwasher-washer-dryer-small cube freezer- Fenced in yard and a long covered driveway Enjoy taking a walk or a warm cup of coffee on your private porch , in this peaceful community. All while being minutes from shopping and dining . You couldn & acirc; &

Key facts

• Private porch
• Covered driveway
• Pool

Tags

• POOL
• FENCED IN YARD
• COVERED DRIVEWAY
• PRIVATE PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $902 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 2.1% in Kerrville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#25 in TX, #1,483 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Kerrville ISD (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 753 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.45%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $43,112
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $111,792
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78028

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 753
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $902

Break-even live

Break-even rent $727

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $953	-5% $928	+0% $902	+5% $877	+10% $852
Rent	-10% $755	-5% $829	+0% $902	+5% $976	+10% $1,050
Rate	-1.0pp $947	-0.5pp $925	base $902	+0.5pp $879	+1.0pp $856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Manor Dr Unit B Kerrville, TX	2.0	2.0	1476	$2,100	$1.42	44d	1	0.33mi
1127 Lois St Kerrville, TX	2.0	2.0	1496	$2,100	$1.40	44d	1	0.37mi
801 Manor Dr Unit B Kerrville, TX	2.0	2.0	1476	$2,100	$1.42	44d	1	0.50mi
1006 Guadalupe St Kerrville, TX	1.0	1.5	1171	$1,750	$1.49	44d	1	0.59mi
115 Plaza Dr Kerrville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	791	$1,255	$1.59	5d	4	0.70mi
1905 West Ln Kerrville, TX	2.0	2.0	1420	$1,595	$1.12	44d	1	0.79mi
1900 West Ln Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.85mi
1959 Arcadia Loop Kerrville, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	44d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-26
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,629 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 92.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $9,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,394
• After-tax cash flow: $8,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerrville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825590
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,050
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3702
• State rank: #220 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kerrville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #1483

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kerrville, TX
• County: Kerr County · 41,206 people
• City population: 41,206
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,206
• Household income: $66,991
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1092.0

Population outlook (Kerr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,010 people
• By 2030: 55,651 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 58,923 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 62,117 · +15.0%
• By 2075: 71,809 · +33.0%
• By 2100: 77,004 · +42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kerr

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+59.1 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.97%
• Current HPI: 213.3663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $89,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.