Balboa Plan · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$339,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,277 sqft · SingleFamily · 613 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Balboa is an elegant, award-winning home. Starting at 2,211 square feet, its standard layout includes 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, a game room, a flex room, and an enormous open concept kitchen and family room, with a 2-car garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 612 days

🏗️ New construction. The $339,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $352,228.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $339k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-664/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 613 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $298,751 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 613 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,228
• List price: $339,490
• Delta: -3.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14021 Baikal Manor Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-4%)	2mo	$334,990	$153	86
14005 Baikal Manor Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-4%)	2mo	$354,990	$162	86
13922 Baikal Manor Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-4%)	2mo	$325,990	$148	84
13913 Baikal Manor Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,144 (-6%)	2mo	$339,990	$159	76
13717 Blue Breaker Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,188 (-4%)	0mo	$380,900	$174	74
14315 Freeboard Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,198 (-4%)	0mo	$349,900	$159	73
2909 Fair Wind Ln	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,415 (+6%)	0mo	$411,900	$171	67
13124 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,229 (-2%)	1mo	$332,990	$149	65
2901 Fair Wind Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,160 (-5%)	1mo	$380,000	$176	65
13909 Baikal Manor Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-13%)	2mo	$352,990	$177	63
13123 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-9%)	1mo	$317,990	$153	49
14325 Santo Park Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,091 (-8%)	2mo	$719,000	$344	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-60,557
• Equity at exit: $52,518

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-57,089
• Equity at exit: $30,454

Cash invested: $98,624 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 232 active · 97 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $359,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,847
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$440 /mo · $5,283/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,081

Max offer price $344,216

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $66	+0% $-55	+5% $-177	+10% $-299
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-174	+0% $-55	+5% $64	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $34	base $-55	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,057
• Closing costs: $10,567
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.26mi
3114 Freeboard Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$3,000	$1.33	0d	1	0.29mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	3.5	1832	$2,650	$1.45	0d	1	0.97mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	134d	1	0.99mi
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	109d	1	1.06mi
13017 Oleander Bay Ln Texas City, TX	5.0	3.5	2959	$2,850	$0.96	5d	1	1.07mi
13322 Sea Breeze Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	2051	$2,595	$1.27	34d	1	1.10mi
2122 Islawild Way Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,100	$1.14	0d	1	1.15mi
2602 Arbor Edge Xing Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	2204	$2,700	$1.23	0d	1	1.32mi
13025 Dancing Reed Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,695	$1.28	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $339,490 Active 613 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $339,490 Active 612 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $339,490 Active 611 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $339,490 Active 610 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $339,490 Active 609 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $339,490 Active 607 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $339,490 Active 606 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $339,490 Active 605 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $339,490 Active 604 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $339,490 Active 603 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $339,490 Active 602 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $339,490 Active 601 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $339,490 Active 600 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $339,490 Active 599 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $339,490 Active 598 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $339,490 Active 597 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $339,490 Active 596 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $339,490 Active 595 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $339,490 Active 594 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $339,490 Active 593 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $339,490 Active 592 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $339,490 Active 591 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $339,490 Active 590 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $339,490 Active 589 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $339,490 Active 588 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $339,490 Active 587 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $339,490 Active 586 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $339,490 Active 585 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $339,490 Active 584 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $339,490 Active 583 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $339,490 Active 582 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $339,490 Active 581 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $339,490 Active 580 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $339,490 Active 579 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $339,490 Active 578 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $339,490 Active 577 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $339,490 Active 576 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $339,490 Active 575 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $339,490 Active 574 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $339,490 Active 573 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $339,490 Active 572 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $339,490 Active 571 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $339,490 Active 570 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $339,490 Active 569 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $339,490 Active 568 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $339,490 Active 567 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $339,490 Active 566 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $339,490 Active 565 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $339,490 Active 564 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $339,490 Active 563 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,730
• − Property taxes: −$5,283
• − Insurance: −$1,761
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,891
• − Management: −$2,891
• − Depreciation: −$10,247
• Taxable loss: −$6,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,601
• After-tax cash flow: $936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938
• Household income: $96,284
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $337,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $244,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $337,490 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $336,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $345,490 Zillow