Carlisle Plan · Leesburg, FL 34788

$376,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 278 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Carlisle - Spacious and Efficient Family Living The Carlisle single-family home is thoughtfully designed for comfortable and efficient living, offering at least 2,802 square feet of beautifully finished space. This versatile floor plan includes 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms as a foundation you can build on. Enjoy seamless flow throughout the home-from the garage to the kitchen, into the great room, and around the flexible living spaces-making everyday life easy and convenient. Storage is well-planned with walk-in closets in every bedroom except one, plus a spacious walk-in pantry in the kitchen.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Walk-in closets
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN PANTRY
• MASTER SUITE
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $376,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $483,849.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $377k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-558 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Treadway Elementary School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 879 students, 66% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 49% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 609 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,527/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $331,751 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,849
• List price: $376,990
• Delta: -22.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33746 Spring Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,722 (-3%)	2mo	$525,000	$193	78
33746 Spring Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,722 (-3%)	1mo	$534,500	$196	76
34205 Park Ln	1.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,789 (-0%)	2mo	$535,500	$192	56
9202 Harris Hawk Dr	0.54mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,434 (-13%)	0mo	$359,690	$148	44
9335 Silver Lake Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,994 (+7%)	14mo	$645,000	$215	43
9560 Starling Loop	0.86mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,856 (+2%)	17mo	$395,000	$138	36
34021 Park Ln	1.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,408 (-14%)	1mo	$477,500	$198	34
9507 Mid Summer Ln	0.88mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,100 (+11%)	12mo	$500,000	$161	30
9518 Mid Summer Ln	0.84mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,129 (+12%)	17mo	$740,000	$236	23
9513 Mid Summer Ln	0.88mi	4/3.5	3,228 (+15%)	18mo	$665,000	$206	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-113,860
• Equity at exit: $72,143

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-144,655
• Equity at exit: $41,834

Cash invested: $135,478 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.3 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $389,990 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34788

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Active inventory: 609
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,537
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$605 /mo · $7,258/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$741
• Net cashflow: $-558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,233

Max offer price $403,174

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-390	+0% $-558	+5% $-725	+10% $-892
Rent	-10% $-836	-5% $-697	+0% $-558	+5% $-418	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-434	base $-558	+0.5pp $-683	+1.0pp $-810

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,962
• Closing costs: $14,515
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33721 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	5.0	3.5	3900	$4,550	$1.17	75d	1	0.36mi
33721 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	5.0	3.0	3900	$4,825	$1.24	87d	1	0.36mi
33721 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	5.0	3.5	3900	$4,825	$1.24	114d	1	0.36mi
33732 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2170	$3,000	$1.38	1d	1	0.37mi
33732 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2170	$3,000	$1.38	22d	1	0.37mi
33932 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,400	$1.14	164d	1	1.13mi
33988 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2105	$2,500	$1.19	10d	1	1.19mi
9502 Revere Ave Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.5	2109	$2,600	$1.23	119d	1	1.28mi
33622 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	4.0	2.5	2645	$2,450	$0.93	1d	1	1.40mi
33609 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	4.0	2.5	2645	$2,200	$0.83	87d	1	1.43mi
34333 Shadewood Cir Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1977	$2,501	$1.27	128d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $376,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces, including a 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Carlisle)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,797

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Carlisle (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $376,990 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $376,990 Active 277 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $376,990 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $376,990 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $376,990 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $376,990 Active 272 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $376,990 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $376,990 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $376,990 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $376,990 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $376,990 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-10-26
    days on market $376,990 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $376,990 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-10-24
    days on market $376,990 Active 263 DOM
15. 2026-10-23
    days on market $376,990 Active 262 DOM
16. 2026-10-22
    days on market $376,990 Active 261 DOM
17. 2026-10-21
    days on market $376,990 Active 260 DOM
18. 2026-10-20
    days on market $376,990 Active 259 DOM
19. 2026-10-19
    days on market $376,990 Active 258 DOM
20. 2026-10-18
    days on market $376,990 Active 257 DOM
21. 2026-10-17
    days on market $376,990 Active 256 DOM
22. 2026-10-16
    days on market $376,990 Active 255 DOM
23. 2026-10-15
    days on market $376,990 Active 254 DOM
24. 2026-10-14
    days on market $376,990 Active 253 DOM
25. 2026-10-13
    days on market $376,990 Active 252 DOM
26. 2026-10-12
    days on market $376,990 Active 251 DOM
27. 2026-10-11
    days on market $376,990 Active 250 DOM
28. 2026-10-10
    days on market $376,990 Active 249 DOM
29. 2026-10-09
    days on market $376,990 Active 248 DOM
30. 2026-10-08
    days on market $376,990 Active 247 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $376,990 Active 246 DOM
32. 2026-10-06
    days on market $376,990 Active 245 DOM
33. 2026-10-05
    days on market $376,990 Active 244 DOM
34. 2026-10-04
    days on market $376,990 Active 243 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $376,990 Active 242 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $376,990 Active 241 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $376,990 Active 240 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $376,990 Active 239 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $376,990 Active 238 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $376,990 Active 237 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $376,990 Active 236 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $376,990 Active 234 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $376,990 Active 233 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $376,990 Active 232 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $376,990 Active 231 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $376,990 Active 230 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $376,990 Active 229 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $376,990 Active 228 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $376,990 Active 227 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $376,990 Active 226 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,103
• − Property taxes: −$7,258
• − Insurance: −$2,419
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,386
• − Management: −$3,386
• − Depreciation: −$14,076
• Taxable loss: −$15,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,673
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,010–$42,030 screening

The Carlisle single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof, siding, and windows. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior, replace the carpet, and install hardwood flooring and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Install hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and appeals to buyers ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Treadway Elementary School D+ FL #1,055/2,144 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Oak Park Middle School F FL #426/571 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Leesburg High School F FL #464/667 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 386,640 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.07%
• Current HPI: 273.6616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $376,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces, including a 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Carlisle)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,797

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Carlisle (new construction plan)