22965 Highway 146 N · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77327

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1975 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity. FULLY OCCUPIED. Unit A on the right side is 1074 sq ft. 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Unit B on the left side is 1044 sq ft. 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. New septic system with a new 500 gallon tank April 2022. No yard maintenance & Utilities paid by tenant. Plenty of space to add more income producing properties. A/C's are run on Mini Splits. Water is city and paid through livingston water company Agent remarks has rent amounts for when leases are in place and other pertinent information.

Key facts

• 500 gallon tank
• New septic system
• 0.42 acre lot

Tags

• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• 500 GALLON TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.05%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $17,052
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $77,249
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,420/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 67%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,314
Total (2 units)			$2,313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-03-29
    price $170,000 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. FULLY OCCUPIED. Unit A on the right side is 1074 sq ft. 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Unit B on the left side is 1044 sq ft. 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. New septic system with a new 500 gallon tank April 2022. No yard maintenance & Utilities paid by tenant. Plenty of space to add more income producing properties. A/C's are run on Mini Splits. Water is city and paid through livingston water company Agent remarks has rent amounts for when leases are in place and other pertinent information.

15. 2026-01-20
    price $195,000 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. FULLY OCCUPIED. Unit A on the right side is 1074 sq ft. 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Unit B on the left side is 1044 sq ft. 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. New septic system with a new 500 gallon tank April 2022. No yard maintenance & Utilities paid by tenant. Plenty of space to add more income producing properties. A/C's are run on Mini Splits. Water is city and paid through livingston water company Agent remarks has rent amounts for when leases are in place and other pertinent information.

16. 2026-01-20
    listed $190,000 Active 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Great investment opportunity. FULLY OCCUPIED. Unit A on the right side is 1074 sq ft. 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Unit B on the left side is 1044 sq ft. 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. New septic system with a new 500 gallon tank April 2022. No yard maintenance & Utilities paid by tenant. Plenty of space to add more income producing properties. A/C's are run on Mini Splits. Water is city and paid through livingston water company Agent remarks has rent amounts for when leases are in place and other pertinent information.

17. 2025-08-07
    historical
18. 2025-05-16
    price $199,900
19. 2025-02-17
    historical $1,000
20. 2025-02-03
    listed $1,000
21. 2025-01-04
    listed $205,000 Active
22. 2024-12-06
    historical
23. 2024-10-05
    listed $225,000 Active
24. 2024-05-23
    historical $1,200
25. 2024-05-22
    historical
26. 2024-04-30
    price $205,000
27. 2024-02-23
    price $215,000
28. 2024-01-01
    listed $225,000 Active
29. 2023-11-16
    listed $1,200
30. 2023-10-12
    historical $1,200
31. 2023-09-23
    listed $1,200
32. 2023-07-07
    historical
33. 2023-06-20
    status Active
34. 2023-06-10
    status Pending
35. 2023-06-04
    status Option Pending
36. 2023-03-14
    price $225,000
37. 2023-02-05
    status Active
38. 2023-01-28
    status Option Pending
39. 2023-01-23
    listed $230,000 Active
40. 2022-11-11
    status Option Pending
41. 2022-11-11
    historical
42. 2022-06-16
    listed $210,000 Active
43. 2022-06-16
    historical
44. 2022-06-01
    price $210,000
45. 2022-05-10
    price $214,999
46. 2022-04-02
    listed $225,000 Active
47. 2022-03-16
    soldstatus Sold
48. 2022-03-16
    soldstatus
49. 2022-03-08
    status Pending
50. 2022-01-22
    status Pending, Continue to Show

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,420 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,420 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,420
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,220
• − Management: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $5,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,315
• After-tax cash flow: $6,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.3% since first listed

48 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Rental Removed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listed for Rent $1,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-05 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Rental Removed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent $1,200 HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Listed for Rent $1,200 HARMLS
• 2023-07-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-14 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-01-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-10 Price Changed $214,999 HARMLS
• 2022-04-02 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-19 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2021-11-23 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2021-10-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-09-30 Price Changed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2021-08-17 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2021-05-13 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-12-12 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-22 Listed $117,000 HARMLS
• 2017-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,420 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.