Grayson Plan · Lowell, IN 46356

$261,995

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,616 sqft · Townhouse · 262 Days on market

Good condition $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Grayson, a charming two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, offering 1,616 sq. ft. of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring two bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and an inviting open-concept layout, this new construction home delivers style and convenience for today's lifestyle. The main floor highlights a beautifully designed kitchen featuring a functional center island workstation overlooking the spacious great room and breakfast nook, creating an ideal space for entertaining or relaxing. An attached two-car garage and an optional powder room enhance daily living with extra practicality. Upstairs, versatility takes center stage. Choose from several flexible layouts to best fit your needs: opt for two bedrooms plus a versatile loft space, or transform the loft into a comfortable third bedroom and add a private primary bath. Enhance your primary bedroom with an optional grand private bath, adding two generous closets and a luxurious private bathroom. Alternatively, maintain the two-bedroom-plus-loft configuration and simply add an optional private bath to the primary suite for extra convenience. With a variety of customization options-including a patio, sunroom, formal kitchen layout, and basement-the Grayson can be tailored to perfectly match your needs. Explore new construction homes for sale in Northwest Indiana and discover why the Grayson offers the versatility and modern design you're looking for in your next home.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Spacious great room
• Optional powder room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• ATTACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• OPTIONAL POWDER ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $261,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,741.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-892/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 352 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,555 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,741
• List price: $261,995
• Delta: 0.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
452 Greenbrier Ln	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,616 (0%)	0mo	$240,000	$149	81
425 Briarwood Ln	0.39mi	2/2.5	1,640 (+2%)	5mo	$235,000	$143	71
313 Sweetbriar Ct	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,640 (+2%)	7mo	$243,000	$148	63
231 Sweetbriar Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,542 (-5%)	1mo	$254,900	$165	57
231 Sweetbriar Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,542 (-5%)	1mo	$254,900	$165	57
18502 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,717 (+6%)	7mo	$282,000	$164	56
18532 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,767 (+9%)	7mo	$263,444	$149	52
8330 Kannon Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,815 (+12%)	3mo	$285,000	$157	50
8366 Kannon Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	2mo	$290,000	$158	45
18512 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	6mo	$274,204	$149	44
18522 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	7mo	$272,005	$148	44
18592 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	9mo	$282,954	$154	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-47,035
• Equity at exit: $39,026

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-46,597
• Equity at exit: $22,631

Cash invested: $73,287 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,373
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,926/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,448

Max offer price $250,985

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $16	+0% $-74	+5% $-165	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-167	+0% $-74	+5% $19	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $-8	base $-74	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,435
• Closing costs: $7,852
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8301 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,800	$1.63	16d	1	0.43mi
510 Creekside Dr Lowell, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,488	$1.55	0d	7	0.45mi
8366 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,450	$1.33	0d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $261,995 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,995 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,995 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,995 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,995 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $261,995 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $261,995 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,995 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $261,995 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $261,995 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,995 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,995 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,995 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,995 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-03-10
    price $261,995 1464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1464 chars)

    Discover the Grayson, a charming two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, offering 1,616 sq. ft. of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring two bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and an inviting open-concept layout, this new construction home delivers style and convenience for today's lifestyle. The main floor highlights a beautifully designed kitchen featuring a functional center island workstation overlooking the spacious great room and breakfast nook, creating an ideal space for entertaining or relaxing. An attached two-car garage and an optional powder room enhance daily living with extra practicality. Upstairs, versatility takes center stage. Choose from several flexible layouts to best fit your needs: opt for two bedrooms plus a versatile loft space, or transform the loft into a comfortable third bedroom and add a private primary bath. Enhance your primary bedroom with an optional grand private bath, adding two generous closets and a luxurious private bathroom. Alternatively, maintain the two-bedroom-plus-loft configuration and simply add an optional private bath to the primary suite for extra convenience. With a variety of customization options-including a patio, sunroom, formal kitchen layout, and basement-the Grayson can be tailored to perfectly match your needs. Explore new construction homes for sale in Northwest Indiana and discover why the Grayson offers the versatility and modern design you're looking for in your next home.

16. 2025-10-15
    price $255,995 1464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1464 chars)

    Discover the Grayson, a charming two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, offering 1,616 sq. ft. of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring two bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and an inviting open-concept layout, this new construction home delivers style and convenience for today's lifestyle. The main floor highlights a beautifully designed kitchen featuring a functional center island workstation overlooking the spacious great room and breakfast nook, creating an ideal space for entertaining or relaxing. An attached two-car garage and an optional powder room enhance daily living with extra practicality. Upstairs, versatility takes center stage. Choose from several flexible layouts to best fit your needs: opt for two bedrooms plus a versatile loft space, or transform the loft into a comfortable third bedroom and add a private primary bath. Enhance your primary bedroom with an optional grand private bath, adding two generous closets and a luxurious private bathroom. Alternatively, maintain the two-bedroom-plus-loft configuration and simply add an optional private bath to the primary suite for extra convenience. With a variety of customization options-including a patio, sunroom, formal kitchen layout, and basement-the Grayson can be tailored to perfectly match your needs. Explore new construction homes for sale in Northwest Indiana and discover why the Grayson offers the versatility and modern design you're looking for in your next home.

17. 2025-10-02
    listed $254,995 Active 1464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1464 chars)

    Discover the Grayson, a charming two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, offering 1,616 sq. ft. of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring two bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and an inviting open-concept layout, this new construction home delivers style and convenience for today's lifestyle. The main floor highlights a beautifully designed kitchen featuring a functional center island workstation overlooking the spacious great room and breakfast nook, creating an ideal space for entertaining or relaxing. An attached two-car garage and an optional powder room enhance daily living with extra practicality. Upstairs, versatility takes center stage. Choose from several flexible layouts to best fit your needs: opt for two bedrooms plus a versatile loft space, or transform the loft into a comfortable third bedroom and add a private primary bath. Enhance your primary bedroom with an optional grand private bath, adding two generous closets and a luxurious private bathroom. Alternatively, maintain the two-bedroom-plus-loft configuration and simply add an optional private bath to the primary suite for extra convenience. With a variety of customization options-including a patio, sunroom, formal kitchen layout, and basement-the Grayson can be tailored to perfectly match your needs. Explore new construction homes for sale in Northwest Indiana and discover why the Grayson offers the versatility and modern design you're looking for in your next home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,662
• − Property taxes: −$3,926
• − Insurance: −$1,309
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$7,614
• Taxable loss: −$5,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Installing new flooring in the bedrooms — New flooring in bedrooms improves comfort and appearance.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A modern backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in the bedrooms — New flooring in bedrooms improves comfort and appearance. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A modern backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,396
• Population (ZIP): 19,396

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 10% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $261,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $255,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Listed $254,995 Zillow