Grayson Plan · Lowell, IN 46356

$261,995

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,616 sqft · Townhouse · 310 Days on market

Good condition $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Grayson, a charming two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, offering 1,616 sq. ft. of thoughtfully crafted living space. Featuring two bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and an inviting open-concept layout, this new construction home delivers style and convenience for today's lifestyle. The main floor highlights a beautifully designed kitchen featuring a functional center island workstation overlooking the spacious great room and breakfast nook, creating an ideal space for entertaining or relaxing. An attached two-car garage and an optional powder room enhance daily living with extra practicality. Upstairs, versatility takes center stage. Choose from several flexible layouts to best fit your needs: opt for two bedrooms plus a versatile loft space, or transform the loft into a comfortable third bedroom and add a private primary bath. Enhance your primary bedroom with an optional grand private bath, adding two generous closets and a luxurious private bathroom. Alternatively, maintain the two-bedroom-plus-loft configuration and simply add an optional private bath to the primary suite for extra convenience. With a variety of customization options-including a patio, sunroom, formal kitchen layout, and basement-the Grayson can be tailored to perfectly match your needs. Explore new construction homes for sale in Northwest Indiana and discover why the Grayson offers the versatility and modern design you're looking for in your next home.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Spacious great room
• Optional powder room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• ATTACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• OPTIONAL POWDER ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $261,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,622.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Hill Elementary School (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B, #117 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 563 students, 30% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,555 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,622
• List price: $261,995
• Delta: -0.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
452 Greenbrier Ln	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,616 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$149	79
425 Briarwood Ln	0.39mi	2/2.5	1,640 (+2%)	6mo	$235,000	$143	70
231 Sweetbriar Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,542 (-5%)	2mo	$254,900	$165	56
231 Sweetbriar Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,542 (-5%)	2mo	$254,900	$165	56
18502 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,717 (+6%)	9mo	$282,000	$164	55
18532 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,767 (+9%)	8mo	$263,444	$149	50
18501 Percy Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	1mo	$304,950	$166	50
8330 Kannon Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,815 (+12%)	4mo	$285,000	$157	48
8386 Kannon Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,815 (+12%)	1mo	$290,000	$160	47
8366 Kannon Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	3mo	$290,000	$158	44
18512 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	8mo	$274,204	$149	43
18522 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	9mo	$272,005	$148	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-47,183
• Equity at exit: $39,158

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-46,732
• Equity at exit: $22,707

Cash invested: $73,534 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $269,920 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,361 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,377
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,939/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,456

Max offer price $251,854

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $16	+0% $-74	+5% $-165	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-168	+0% $-74	+5% $19	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-8	base $-74	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,656
• Closing costs: $7,879
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8301 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,800	$1.63	64d	1	0.43mi
510 Creekside Dr Lowell, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,618	$1.56	0d	6	0.45mi
8366 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,450	$1.33	48d	1	0.48mi
673 Joe Martin Rd Lowell, IN	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,095	$1.56	7d	1	0.98mi
561 Eastwood Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,600	$1.93	33d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $261,995 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $261,995 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $261,995 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $261,995 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $261,995 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $261,995 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $261,995 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $261,995 Active 300 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $261,995 Active 299 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $261,995 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $261,995 Active 295 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $261,995 Active 294 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $261,995 Active 293 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $261,995 Active 292 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $261,995 Active 291 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $261,995 Active 289 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $261,995 Active 288 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $261,995 Active 287 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $261,995 Active 286 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $261,995 Active 285 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $261,995 Active 284 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $261,995 Active 283 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $261,995 Active 282 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $261,995 Active 281 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $261,995 Active 280 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $261,995 Active 278 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $261,995 Active 277 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $261,995 Active 276 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $261,995 Active 275 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $261,995 Active 274 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $261,995 Active 273 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $261,995 Active 272 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $261,995 Active 271 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $261,995 Active 270 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $261,995 Active 269 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $261,995 Active 268 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $261,995 Active 267 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $261,995 Active 265 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $261,995 Active 263 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $261,995 Active 262 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $261,995 Active 259 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $261,995 Active 258 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $261,995 Active 257 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $261,995 Active 256 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $261,995 Active 254 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $261,995 Active 250 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $261,995 Active 249 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $261,995 Active 248 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $261,995 Active 245 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,995 Active 244 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,711
• − Property taxes: −$3,939
• − Insurance: −$1,313
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,267
• − Management: −$2,267
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$7,640
• Taxable loss: −$5,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in the bedrooms — New flooring in bedrooms improves comfort and appearance. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A modern backsplash can add value and functionality to the kitchen space. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Hill Elementary School B IN #117/994 Nat'l #6,818/41,679 Middle Lowell Middle School D IN #81/330 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Lowell Senior High School C- IN #99/369 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake · 484,026 people
• City population: 19,396
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,396
• Household income: $87,535
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 10% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $261,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $255,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Listed $254,995 Zillow