921 Autumn Ln #256 · Bellingham, WA 98229

$219,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1989 4,278 sqft lot Est $241k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very rare 4 bedroom home with 2 full baths in such a high demand park on the lake. Has had a total remodel professionally done making an effective age of 2026. This home was completely stripped down to the studs with now new insulation, drywall, carpeting and all flooring. New everything including stainless appliances, furnace, cabinets, and counter-tops. Favorable floor-plan with primary bedroom and en-suite on one side of the home and the other 3 bedrooms on the other side giving extra private space and quiet setting when having visitors, etc. Complete outside has new hardi-plank siding as well as the skirting is hardi-plank. New roof of only weeks old. Large deck overlooking and backing

Key facts

• 4,278 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home remains
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Land lease amount applicable
• HOA & community: Land-lease park approved for sale (Lake Samish Terrace); Senior community; Approximately 72 homes in the park; Park amenities include high-speed internet availability, laundry, recreational area, RV parking, community waterfront

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open/uncovered parking spaces; RV parking available in park
• Security: Community setting (park of 72 homes)
• Utilities: Electric energy; Private water (Lake Samish water); Sewer via Sewer District 12; Power provided by PSE; Cable connected (Xfinity); Internet connected (Comcast)
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Sellabration); Updated/remodeled condition; One level; Has a view
• Construction: Cement construction materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cement/concrete exterior; Paved lot; Community waterfront / beach rights; Beach access; Patio/porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Water heater (electric) with outside access; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary; Double pane windows; Patio/porch/deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; On-site laundry available in park

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.0% in Bellingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#102 in WA, #1,947 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.34%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,380
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
921 Autumn Ln #236	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-11%)	15mo	$215,000	$149	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,557
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $60,191
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98229

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,071/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,682

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 W Lake Samish Dr Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,995	$2.34	13d	1	0.56mi
705 W Lake Samish Dr Unit 703A Bellingham, WA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,495	$2.23	13d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $219,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,146 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,075/yr (+$90/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥83°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,071
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $4,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $6,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellingham School District
• NCES district ID: 5300420
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,678
• Composite: 48.49/100
• National rank: #4632
• State rank: #106 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bellingham

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #1947

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 130,296
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 33,298
• Household income: $90,945
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 413.1478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $235,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,071 · +82.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.