26051 Spiney Thistle Rd · Katy, TX 77493

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 $179/sqft · 11% below area Est $337k · 11% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Featuring a thoughtfully designed single-story layout, the Buchanan offers plenty of private and common living space. Toward the front of the home, two bedrooms share a full hall bath-with one bedroom available as an optional study. At the heart of the home, an inviting kitchen-featuring a center island and corner pantry-overlooks an open-concept area with a spacious great room and elegant dining area, providing access to an optional covered patio. Completing the home, a lavish owner's suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath.

Key facts

• Single-story layout
• Inviting kitchen
• Spacious great room

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• INVITING KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT AREA
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($702/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2728 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,282
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -11.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26247 Venus Trap Trl	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+0%)	1mo	$289,900	$173	93
25302 Benroe St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+1%)	19mo	$299,995	$177	58
4614 Dunston Manor St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,675 (0%)	17mo	$309,995	$185	55
25307 Ashbourne Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+6%)	13mo	$299,995	$169	54
25523 Cartington Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,675 (0%)	22mo	$334,995	$200	46
5003 Bluebird Song Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,599 (-4%)	21mo	$338,351	$212	40
5027 Bluebird Song Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,585 (-5%)	23mo	$313,955	$198	38
4563 Kellmore Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,439 (-14%)	12mo	$297,000	$206	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,735
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-71,508
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2728
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $162	+0% $59	+5% $-45	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-48	+0% $59	+5% $165	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $135	base $59	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,024	$1.60	0d	17	0.92mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	0d	25	1.32mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-05-08
   historical
6. 2026-05-06
   price $299,900
7. 2026-04-01
   price $309,900
8. 2026-03-20
   price $318,900
9. 2026-02-23
   price $320,900
10. 2026-01-13
    listed $330,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,590
• − Management: −$2,590
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$4,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,039
• After-tax cash flow: $1,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $318,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $320,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $330,900 HARMLS