21 Provident Ln · Mobile, AL 36608

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1986 0.36 ac lot $157/sqft · 23% below area Est $445k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer-upper in the heart of Spring Hill! This brick house has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, with an open concept dining and living area which opens up to the huge back deck, plus a breakfast nook and large den with a wood burning fireplace. Positioned at the end of Provident Lane, this house sits in a private location. This home has 2 levels, with the primary bedroom on the main floor, and 3 bedrooms downstairs. The den downstairs has a wood burning fireplace which is surrounded by lovely brickwork. There is a mudroom/laundry room which flows off the den, with another point of entrance off the driveway. The large wrap around deck would be a prime spot to entertain or simply enjoy the beautiful mature tree-lined yard. Roof and roof eaves repaired in 2024 per seller. Don't miss this great opportunity, call your favorite realtor today for a showing. Sold as is, where is. Personal items to be removed upon sale. Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details. *Year built unknown*.

Key facts

• Huge back deck
• Wrap around deck
• Mudroom laundry room

Tags

• HUGE BACK DECK
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE LOCATION
• MATURE TREE-LINED YARD
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• MUDROOM LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mary B Austin Elementary School (math 29% / reading 59%, grade F, #194 of 627 statewide, top 32%, 511 students, 51% FRL); Cl Scarborough Model Middle School (math 4% / reading 21%, grade F, #216 of 257 statewide, top 86%, 651 students, 94% FRL); Murphy High School (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,254 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,509/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1823% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,857 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.38%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,018
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -32.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Stillwood Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,934 (+1%)	8mo	$349,000	$180	76
3517 Stillwood Ln W	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,100 (+10%)	6mo	$550,000	$262	63
151 Tuthill Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,089 (+9%)	9mo	$690,000	$330	56
8 Lancaster Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	1,786 (-6%)	2mo	$420,000	$235	52
3709 Old Shell Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-6%)	10mo	$302,023	$168	52
4014 Moffett Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,722 (-10%)	9mo	$180,600	$105	48
3263 Stein St	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,081 (+9%)	10mo	$310,500	$149	47
3672 Ansley Dr N	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-6%)	16mo	$340,000	$189	46
556 SHADY OAK Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,667 (-13%)	2mo	$315,000	$189	42
1 York Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,775 (-7%)	16mo	$380,000	$214	41
18 York Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,110 (+10%)	6mo	$427,500	$203	39
560 Shady Oak Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,681 (-12%)	14mo	$323,019	$192	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-29,801
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $23,088
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36608

• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,480/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,299

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $251	+0% $166	+5% $81	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $67	+0% $166	+5% $265	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $242	base $166	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3521 Stillwood Ln W Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	2126	$2,900	$1.36	45d	1	0.20mi
324 Dalewood Dr Mobile, AL	4.0	3.0	2398	$2,750	$1.15	45d	1	0.26mi
151 Du Rhu Dr Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,800	$2.66	15d	12	0.84mi
4174 Benson Dr Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,400	$1.09	45d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 162 DOM
18. 2025-12-19
    listed $299,000 Active 1008-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

    Fixer-upper in the heart of Spring Hill! This brick house has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, with an open concept dining and living area which opens up to the huge back deck, plus a breakfast nook and large den with a wood burning fireplace. Positioned at the end of Provident Lane, this house sits in a private location. This home has 2 levels, with the primary bedroom on the main floor, and 3 bedrooms downstairs. The den downstairs has a wood burning fireplace which is surrounded by lovely brickwork. There is a mudroom/laundry room which flows off the den, with another point of entrance off the driveway. The large wrap around deck would be a prime spot to entertain or simply enjoy the beautiful mature tree-lined yard. Roof and roof eaves repaired in 2024 per seller. Don't miss this great opportunity, call your favorite realtor today for a showing. Sold as is, where is. Personal items to be removed upon sale. Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details. *Year built unknown*.

19. 2025-07-08
    price $299,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,480 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,480 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,480
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$3,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$752
• After-tax cash flow: $2,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,890
• Household income: $61,146
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1823.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 35% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.52%
• Current HPI: 198.9469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.15%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $299,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $299,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,480 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.