4409 Tucker Sq · Beacon Square, FL 34652

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1984 4,584 sqft lot Est $164k · 15% under $175/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pretty home in well kept 55+ community. Whether you live here full time or spend the winters, you'll be centrally located near restaurants, shopping and beaches. Large living room ~ separate dining room with lovely stained glass wall china cabinet ~ roomy kitchen with breakfast bar & pantry -all appliances remain ~ Huge master bedroom with private bath and hall of closets ~ good sized 2nd bedroom ~ linen closets & storage closets ~ private screened Florida room leads to outdoor patio and pleasant yard ~outdoor utility shed ~ attached utility & storage room. The Community itself features a HEATED pool, recreation center with Wi-Fi, covered picnic area and community Tool Shed where residents can borrow tools.

Key facts

• Storage room
• Community pool
• No lot rent

Tags

• NO LOT RENT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• CARPORT
• STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Enter the community; home will be on your right
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $175; total annual fees $2,100; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $175 (required) — association approval required; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, maintenance; Association fee includes cable TV, pool, internet, common area taxes, and structure maintenance; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Association recreation owned

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); Attached property; One story; South-facing entry
• Construction: Metal frame with metal siding; Shake and shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as completed condition
• Exterior features: Awnings; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Outdoor storage; Landscaped yard; Oversized lot; Paved road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Bonus room
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Mini-split cooling units; Other heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-680/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (7.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.7% in Beacon Square — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mittye P. Locke Elementary School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 491 students, 89% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 644 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $140k implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.33%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,978
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4135 Pecan Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	13mo	$141,000	$163	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-29,948
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-45,066
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34652

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $888/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,858

Max offer price $129,896

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-17	+0% $-57	+5% $-96	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-127	+0% $-57	+5% $14	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-21	base $-57	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4505 Cottonwood Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	4d	1	0.07mi
4408 Rustic Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	26d	1	0.16mi
4411 Rustic Dr Unit 1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	14d	1	0.19mi
4221 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	26d	1	0.21mi
4122 Hampton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,795	$1.71	0d	1	0.32mi
4022 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	19d	1	0.36mi
4031 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	19d	1	0.36mi
4282 Rudder Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,000	$1.38	26d	1	0.37mi
4282 Rudder Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,000	$1.53	5d	1	0.37mi
4540 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,550	$2.02	26d	1	0.38mi
4721 Naftis Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	14d	1	0.41mi
4645 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,700	$1.47	1d	1	0.41mi
4616 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	898	$1,600	$1.78	22d	1	0.44mi
4301 Straits Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.5	1284	$1,790	$1.39	26d	1	0.49mi
4852 Pompano Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,900	$2.63	26d	1	0.50mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	5d	1	0.50mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	16d	1	0.50mi
3847 Lighthouse Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	23d	1	0.53mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	7d	1	0.59mi
5020 Vickers Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$1,495	$1.73	1d	1	0.65mi
4554 Nimmer Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,600	$1.36	16d	1	0.69mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	26d	2	0.73mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	3d	2	0.73mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,648	$1.57	18d	3	0.73mi
4548 Belfast Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	19d	1	0.73mi
4436 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	890	$2,295	$2.58	7d	1	0.76mi
4430 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1094	$2,500	$2.29	5d	1	0.77mi
4834 Salem Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	0d	1	0.77mi
4117 Highland Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,599	$1.16	14d	1	0.78mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.83mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.84mi
4335 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	26d	1	0.84mi
4754 Marine Pkwy Unit 2 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,750	$1.33	16d	1	0.86mi
4754 Marine Pkwy Unit 102-I New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	26d	1	0.86mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.86mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	26d	1	0.86mi
5197 Silent Loop #124 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$2,200	$2.30	26d	1	0.86mi
5197 Silent Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$2,200	$2.30	5d	1	0.86mi
4747 Azalea Dr #208 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,200	$1.06	19d	1	0.90mi
4753 Marine Pkwy Unit 4753 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	26d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: internetpool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $139,900 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $139,900 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$888
• − Insurance: −$5,818
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$651
• After-tax cash flow: $-29/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Beacon Square

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beacon Square, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,444
• Household income: $56,931
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 310.8347
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+242.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-27 Sold (MLS) $38,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-30 Listed $40,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $888 · +131.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.