8865 E Baseline Rd #1010 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$99,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition $104/sqft · 7% below area Est $108k · 8% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

There are homes. .. and then there are opportunities you simply don't see twice. Welcome to one of the most unique and versatile homes in Monte Vista Village--where thoughtful upgrades, light-filled living, and an incredible expanded floorplan come together to create something truly special. From the moment you step inside, the home opens with soaring vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light from multiple skylights, and shutters that frame each space with warmth and intention. The flow is effortless, the feel is elevated, and every detail has been curated for both comfort and style. At the heart of the home is a stunning, fully upgraded kitchen--featuring high-end granite countertops, expan

Key facts

• Retractable awning
• In-unit laundry
• Charming brick porch

Tags

• FULLY UPGRADED KITCHEN
• MASSIVE WINDOW-LINED SPACE
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• CHARMING BRICK PORCH
• RETRACTABLE AWNING
• PAVER WORK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to property
• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,039 per month; No association fees included; Community amenities: pool, community spa (heated), pickleball, tennis courts, fitness center, community media room

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Security: Gated community with guarded entry; Security guard
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area per builder
• Exterior features: Storage; Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Skylights; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Augusta Ranch Elementary (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 953 students, 29% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.54%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8865 E Baseline Rd #715	0.09mi	2/2.0 (+1)	998 (+4%)	3mo	$108,000	$108	82
8865 E Baseline Rd #1416	0.05mi	1/2.0	924 (-4%)	17mo	$67,000	$73	78
110 S Ellsworth Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0 (+1)	906 (-6%)	0mo	$192,000	$212	72
8865 E Baseline Rd #1207	0.09mi	1/1.5	1,085 (+13%)	4mo	$45,000	$41	69
8865 E Baseline Rd #531	0.05mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,032 (+8%)	16mo	$168,000	$163	67
8865 E Baseline Rd #446	0.05mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (+6%)	22mo	$173,000	$170	64
8865 E Baseline Rd #621	0.05mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,054 (+10%)	19mo	$160,000	$152	61
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 149B	0.36mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$235,000	$223	60
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 129B	0.36mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,088 (+13%)	7mo	$110,000	$101	50
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 157B	0.38mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+10%)	13mo	$325,000	$308	50
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #180	0.58mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$105,000	$99	49
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #215	0.74mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,006 (+5%)	11mo	$125,000	$124	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $39,456
• Equity at exit: $36,412

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $91,033
• Equity at exit: $50,226

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $653	+0% $619	+5% $584	+10% $550
Rent	-10% $488	-5% $553	+0% $619	+5% $684	+10% $749
Rate	-1.0pp $669	-0.5pp $644	base $619	+0.5pp $593	+1.0pp $566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	20d	1	0.05mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	6d	1	0.05mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.09mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #405 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.5	619	$1,900	$3.07	45d	1	0.17mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	16d	1	0.35mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	25d	1	0.35mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	45d	1	0.35mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,430	$1.23	0d	12	0.66mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	16d	3	0.74mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	25d	1	0.74mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	25d	1	0.89mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	4d	11	0.89mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,164	$1.89	45d	1	0.89mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,549	$1.65	0d	1	1.01mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	23d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $99,900 2223-char remark
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $115,000 Active 2223-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $6,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,488
• After-tax cash flow: $5,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained interior and exterior. It has a good potential for value increase with minor cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers and renters.
• Both Updating window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Updating window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $115,000 ARMLS