299 Pizarro Rd · Butler Beach, FL 32080

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1990 9,583 sqft lot $256/sqft · 28% below area Est $554k · 28% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Inviting 3BR/2BA home tucked away on a peaceful cul-de-sac, boasting approximately 144 feet of bulkhead canal frontage. This charming residence features tile and laminate flooring throughout, complemented by a cozy fireplace in the living area—perfect for relaxing evenings. The kitchen is designed for both function and comfort, offering ample counter space and a sunny eat-in area. Just steps away, you’ll find a convenient inside laundry area, making chores effortless. The owner’s suite is a true retreat with a spacious walk-in shower and plenty of room to unwind. Step outside to enjoy breathtaking sunsets and tranquil canal views from your waterfront oasis. The property in

Key facts

• Easy water access
• Ample counter space
• Inside laundry area

Tags

• BULKHEAD CANAL FRONTAGE
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• INSIDE LAUNDRY AREA
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WATERFRONT OASIS
• EASY WATER ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is in a cul-de-sac on an irregular 0.22-acre parcel (less than 1/4 acre)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car carport
• Utilities: County water; Septic waste system
• Home design: Single-story property; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Shingle roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Dock; Bulkhead; On waterfront (canal)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the ground level
• Flooring: Laminate wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms; Primary bath with shower-only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Fireplace; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.2% in Butler Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#784 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W. Douglas Hartley Elementary (math 79% / reading 74%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 633 students, 42% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 20% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,616 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $554,190
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -27.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
299 Pizarro Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,562 (0%)	0mo	$375,000	$240	100
285 Villa Verda Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-1%)	8mo	$499,900	$323	75
206 Basque Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-4%)	20mo	$600,000	$402	66
252 Majorca Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-10%)	17mo	$385,000	$274	62
255 Majorca Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	6mo	$415,000	$309	61
221 Barco Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+6%)	10mo	$499,000	$302	60
224 Puebla Rd	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (-15%)	14mo	$391,926	$295	42
260 Desoto Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	20mo	$485,000	$279	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-84,743
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-124,844
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32080

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,396 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,813/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,597

Max offer price $371,920

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $-45	+0% $-158	+5% $-272	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-427	-5% $-293	+0% $-158	+5% $-24	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-57	base $-158	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6347 Salado Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1728	$3,000	$1.74	23d	1	0.26mi
84 Aloha Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1261	$2,900	$2.30	9d	1	0.42mi
6100 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 1253532P St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1119	$6,585	$5.88	16d	1	0.44mi
6240 A1A S Unit 1281960P St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1453	$4,297	$2.96	9d	1	0.56mi
221 Desoto Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$3,000	$1.92	19d	1	0.60mi
6832 Middleton Ave Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1791	$4,000	$2.23	9d	1	1.13mi
6824 Jimmy Buffett Memorial Hwy Unit 1281930P St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1689	$7,768	$4.60	16d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $399,900 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Contingent- Accepting Backups 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Contingent- Accepting Backups 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Contingent- Accepting Backups 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $399,900 Contingent- Accepting Backups 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $399,900 Contingent- Accepting Backups 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $399,900 Contingent- Accepting Backups 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $399,900 Contingent- Accepting Backups 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-18
   historical Contingent- Accepting Backups 888-char remark
10. 2026-05-14
    status Active 888-char remark
11. 2026-05-11
    historical Contingent- Accepting Backups 888-char remark
12. 2026-05-07
    listed $399,900 Active 888-char remark
13. 2004-03-17
    soldstatus $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,506/yr (+$126/mo · 83.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$1,813
• − Insurance: −$7,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,260
• − Management: −$3,260
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$8,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,096
• After-tax cash flow: $195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Butler Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #784
• US rank: #17810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Butler Beach, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 21,368
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,894
• Household income: $92,531
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -560.06%
• Current HPI: 301.5733
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Delisted — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $375,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-06-10 Pending — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-05-07 Listed $399,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2004-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,813 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.