5873 Elmgrove Ave · Warren, MI 48092

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1938 0.26 ac lot $124/sqft · 39% below area Est $246k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Residential Home! that is ZONED C-2 COMMERCIAL or OFFICE USE! Sold As Is! can be used as a Residential Home! Great Investment Property! Large Corner Lot * 3 Bedroom Bungalow, Great floor plan with lots of potential * Updates include newer dimensional Roof, Vinyl siding, Bathroom, Vinyl Windows & Flooring. Immediate Possession! Sold As Is!

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Large corner lot
• Zoned c-2 commercial

Tags

• ZONED C-2 COMMERCIAL
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• NEWER DIMENSIONAL ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• VINYL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.3% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Warren Consolidated Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #373 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $149k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.63%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,122
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -39.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5600 Elmgrove Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,256 (+5%)	7mo	$238,500	$190	75
28556 Milton St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,160 (-3%)	7mo	$220,500	$190	63
4719 E 12 Mile Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+0%)	10mo	$190,000	$158	59
28150 Loretta Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-6%)	6mo	$150,000	$133	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,618
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $85,193
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48092

• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,619/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29745 Fox Run Cir Warren, MI	3.0	2.0	1487	$2,200	$1.48	43d	1	0.61mi
28439 Wexford Dr Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	1253	$2,099	$1.68	24d	1	1.19mi
27107 Seyburn Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	22d	1	1.24mi
29400 Towne Center Cir Warren, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$2,099	$1.88	1d	1	1.28mi
8429 Towne Center Cir S #52 Warren, MI	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,775	$1.43	24d	1	1.30mi
8457 Towne Center Cir Unit 90 Warren, MI	2.0	2.0	1319	$1,800	$1.36	43d	1	1.30mi
31499 Mound Rd Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,413	$1.57	3d	5	1.31mi
29250 Longview Ave Apt 14 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	43d	1	1.32mi
26009 Pinehurst Dr Warren, MI	2.0	1.5	1310	$2,100	$1.60	1d	1	1.38mi
4473 Buchanan Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	1064	$1,650	$1.55	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $149,000 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    * Residential Home! that is ZONED C-2 COMMERCIAL or OFFICE USE! Sold As Is! can be used as a Residential Home! Great Investment Property! Large Corner Lot * 3 Bedroom Bungalow, Great floor plan with lots of potential * Updates include newer dimensional Roof, Vinyl siding, Bathroom, Vinyl Windows & Flooring. Immediate Possession! Sold As Is!

15. 2026-04-07
    historical

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    * Residential Home! that is ZONED C-2 COMMERCIAL or OFFICE USE! Sold As Is! can be used as a Residential Home! Great Investment Property! Large Corner Lot * 3 Bedroom Bungalow, Great floor plan with lots of potential * Updates include newer dimensional Roof, Vinyl siding, Bathroom, Vinyl Windows & Flooring. Immediate Possession! Sold As Is!

16. 2026-04-07
    listed $149,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    * Residential Home! that is ZONED C-2 COMMERCIAL or OFFICE USE! Sold As Is! can be used as a Residential Home! Great Investment Property! Large Corner Lot * 3 Bedroom Bungalow, Great floor plan with lots of potential * Updates include newer dimensional Roof, Vinyl siding, Bathroom, Vinyl Windows & Flooring. Immediate Possession! Sold As Is!

17. 2026-04-07
    historical

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    * Residential Home! that is ZONED C-2 COMMERCIAL or OFFICE USE! Sold As Is! can be used as a Residential Home! Great Investment Property! Large Corner Lot * 3 Bedroom Bungalow, Great floor plan with lots of potential * Updates include newer dimensional Roof, Vinyl siding, Bathroom, Vinyl Windows & Flooring. Immediate Possession! Sold As Is!

18. 2025-10-01
    price $149,900
19. 2025-10-01
    price $149,900
20. 2025-10-01
    price $149,900
21. 2025-07-09
    listed $169,900 Active
22. 2025-07-07
    listed $169,900 Active
23. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus $60,000
24. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus $60,000
25. 2018-03-20
    listed $79,900
26. 2018-03-20
    historical
27. 2018-02-05
    listed $130,000
28. 2018-02-03
    historical
29. 2017-09-19
    listed $130,000
30. 1967-05-01
    soldstatus $16,261

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,619 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,619 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$3,619
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,279
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$547
• After-tax cash flow: $3,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2635190
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,259
• Composite: 25.09/100
• National rank: #7533
• State rank: #373 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,374
• Household income: $73,808
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 675.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Arab 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Arabic 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.85%
• Current HPI: 189.7524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.03%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+816.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $149,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-09 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-07 Listed $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-03 Sold (MLS) $60,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-03-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2018-03-20 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2018-02-05 Listed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-02-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-09-19 Listed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 1967-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,261 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,619 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.