51256 207th Pl · Shamrock, MN 55760

$169,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Other public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1994 1.21 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Set just minutes from Big Sandy Lake, this 1.2-acre wooded backlot has the kind of setting that is getting harder to find. Tucked into the trees with room to spread out, the property includes a 3-bedroom, 3-bath manufactured home with attached garage that will need interior work and is being sold as-is. For the right buyer, this could be a project worth taking on, but the real value may be in the land itself and the flexibility it offers. There’s plenty of space for storage, room to create something new down the road, and an ideal location close to lakes, trails, and year-round recreation. Buyers should verify any future building or use plans with Aitkin County. This one is ready for

Key facts

• Space for storage
• Attached garage
• 1.21 acre lot

Tags

• 3 BEDROOM MANUFACTURED HOME
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• SPACE FOR STORAGE
• IDEAL LOCATION CLOSE TO LAKES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 1.212 acres (dimensions 296 x 197 x 207 x 228)
• Financial info: Annual tax information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) — 24x28
• Utilities: Drilled water source; Septic system not compliant; Propane fuel; Electric service by Lake Country Power
• Home design: Residential property; Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Built with other construction materials; Asphalt roof; Block and slab foundation; Foundation area 1,232 (dimensions 28x44)
• Exterior features: Heavy tree coverage; Unpaved streets with public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths, 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Has crawl space basement; Main floor full bathroom; One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mcgregor Public School District (rural): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #243 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcgregor Elementary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #604 of 857 statewide, top 74%, 233 students, 64% FRL); Mcgregor Secondary (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #335 of 471 statewide, top 73%, 216 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Aitkin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Aitkin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $114,726 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $84,042
• Equity at exit: $153,059

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $253,983
• Equity at exit: $330,078

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55760

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $922/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $146,535

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-84	+0% $-132	+5% $-180	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-178	+0% $-132	+5% $-87	+10% $-42
Rate	-1.0pp $-47	-0.5pp $-89	base $-132	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $169,900 Active 719-char remark
19. 2025-12-17
    historical
20. 2025-10-16
    price $179,900
21. 2025-09-06
    listed $184,000 Active
22. 2025-09-06
    historical
23. 2025-08-12
    price $189,000
24. 2025-07-03
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,412 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 53.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$922
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$4,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $-467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgregor Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2719170
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,225
• Composite: 31.35/100
• National rank: #5996
• State rank: #243 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shamrock

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,831

Population outlook (Aitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,340 people
• By 2030: 13,514 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 11,928 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 10,804 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 9,555 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 8,380 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Native American 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Lithuanian 6% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Aitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.8% · R 64.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.76%
• Current HPI: 231.677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Listed $184,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $189,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Listed $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $922 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.