17400 Valley #74 · Fontana, CA 92335

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1980 4,000 sqft lot $144/sqft · 6% above area Est $189k · 6% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming and well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere with plenty of living space. Step into a bright, open dining area with large windows, custom tile accents, and a modern light fixture that adds a stylish contemporary feel. The kitchen features generous counter space, butcher-block style countertops, white cabinetry, tile backsplash, gas stove, stainless steel refrigerator, and a convenient peninsula—perfect for prepping meals, A comfortable living room with plenty of room to entertain.

Key facts

• 4,000 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.2% in Fontana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#415 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Colton Joint Unified (suburban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 517 in CA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.44%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,662
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: 6.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17400 Valley Blvd #50	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	8mo	$175,000	$122	87
17400 Valley Blvd #43	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+3%)	5mo	$205,000	$142	85
17400 Valley Blvd #55	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	14mo	$200,000	$149	82
17333 Valley Blvd #81	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$130,000	$90	81
17400 Valley Blvd #24	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	17mo	$186,000	$138	80
17377 valley Blvd #43	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-5%)	7mo	$222,500	$168	78
17400 Valley Blvd #57	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	19mo	$142,000	$99	78
17333 Valley Unit 33 E	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	13mo	$169,900	$126	76
17333 Valley Blvd	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	13mo	$137,000	$95	67
17860 Taylor Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	2mo	$508,000	$407	54
17377 Valley Blvd #53	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	22mo	$207,000	$173	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $17,649
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $74,876
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92335

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $952	-5% $883	+0% $814	+5% $745	+10% $676
Rent	-10% $594	-5% $704	+0% $814	+5% $924	+10% $1,034
Rate	-1.0pp $915	-0.5pp $865	base $814	+0.5pp $762	+1.0pp $710

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17055 San Bernardino Ave Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1630	$3,350	$2.06	44d	1	0.61mi
16970 Marygold Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	2.0	1045	$2,275	$2.18	21d	2	0.62mi
16770 San Bernardino Ave Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	968	$2,275	$2.35	25d	2	0.97mi
16770 San Bernardino Ave Unit 19B Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	968	$2,350	$2.43	44d	1	0.97mi
8996 Newport Ave Fontana, CA	3.0	2.0	1505	$3,350	$2.23	0d	1	1.43mi
8969 Newport Ave Apt 204 Fontana, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,195	$2.09	22d	1	1.44mi
9064 Olive St Unit H Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,175	$1.98	44d	1	1.47mi
9223 Cypress Ave Unit 203 Fontana, CA	2.0	1.5	1008	$2,550	$2.53	6d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-05-16
   price $200,000 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere with plenty of living space. Step into a bright, open dining area with large windows, custom tile accents, and a modern light fixture that adds a stylish contemporary feel. The kitchen features generous counter space, butcher-block style countertops, white cabinetry, tile backsplash, gas stove, stainless steel refrigerator, and a convenient peninsula—perfect for prepping meals, A comfortable living room with plenty of room to entertain.

7. 2026-04-27
   price $205,000 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere with plenty of living space. Step into a bright, open dining area with large windows, custom tile accents, and a modern light fixture that adds a stylish contemporary feel. The kitchen features generous counter space, butcher-block style countertops, white cabinetry, tile backsplash, gas stove, stainless steel refrigerator, and a convenient peninsula—perfect for prepping meals, A comfortable living room with plenty of room to entertain.

8. 2025-12-30
   price $210,000 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere with plenty of living space. Step into a bright, open dining area with large windows, custom tile accents, and a modern light fixture that adds a stylish contemporary feel. The kitchen features generous counter space, butcher-block style countertops, white cabinetry, tile backsplash, gas stove, stainless steel refrigerator, and a convenient peninsula—perfect for prepping meals, A comfortable living room with plenty of room to entertain.

9. 2025-11-12
   listed $220,000 Active 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Welcome to this charming and well-cared-for 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere with plenty of living space. Step into a bright, open dining area with large windows, custom tile accents, and a modern light fixture that adds a stylish contemporary feel. The kitchen features generous counter space, butcher-block style countertops, white cabinetry, tile backsplash, gas stove, stainless steel refrigerator, and a convenient peninsula—perfect for prepping meals, A comfortable living room with plenty of room to entertain.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,669
• − Management: −$2,669
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $7,002
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $8,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colton Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609390
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,178
• Composite: 23.74/100
• National rank: #7820
• State rank: #373 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fontana

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #14177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fontana, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 203,028
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 97,511
• Household income: $77,949
• Rent vs Own: 51.8% rent · 48.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3437.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 13% White 8% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 69% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -804.67%
• Current HPI: 507.5862
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.34%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $220,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $170 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.