The Pearson Plan · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$274,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,701 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

$50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Dining area
• Backyard

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• DINING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• OPTIONAL CENTER ISLAND
• FAMILY ROOM
• BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $321,883.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-553 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,914 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.36%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,883
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -14.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3812 Arrowchop Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+10%)	4mo	$324,682	$173	56
3830 County Road 2636	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-11%)	3mo	$350,000	$231	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-87,312
• Equity at exit: $47,994

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-121,119
• Equity at exit: $27,831

Cash invested: $90,127 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,688
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$402 /mo · $4,828/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,879

Max offer price $241,872

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,471
• Closing costs: $9,656
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,990 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,990 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-01-13
    listed $274,990 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,030
• − Property taxes: −$4,828
• − Insurance: −$1,609
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,364
• Taxable loss: −$12,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,992
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $274,990 Zillow